Thursday Sept 18th 8:00am.. A frontal boundary oriented east-west is located just north of PEI this morning. A low pressure system rippled eastward along this front and is now located over northeastern NB/Gaspe region. The low pressure system will continue to move east today across the northern Gulf and will drag the cold front through the Maritimes later today. Cloud and showers will accompany this frontal passage. Cold high pressure will begin to push into the region tonight and tomorrow with the coldest air of the season and Frost/freeze advisories are issued for all of NB. Unstable conditions tomorrow may also lead to some shower activity and can’t rule out a risk of waterspouts. The high pressure system will pass south of the Maritimes Friday night allowing the winds to shift to the SW for the weekend resulting in warm Saturday and Sunday. The long range models continue to show a strong trough of low pressure pushing into the Maritimes later Sunday and stalling over the east coast into at least Monday/Tuesday. The various computer models are not in good agreement with the evolution of this system so confidence is not very high. Will need to wait for updated data to get a better handle on this system.
Precipitation.. Few showers expected later today with the passage of the cold front. The cold air tomorrow will be very unstable especially over the water. Cloud will mostly likely develop tomorrow with possible localized showers. Rain will be approaching for late Sunday and into Monday but too early to go into details on timings or amounts especially when the computer models are at odds.
Temperatures.. Warm again today with highs expected near 18 by early afternoon ahead of the cold front. Temperatures will then drop quickly behind the front later this afternoon dipping to the low single digits inland away from the coast. I think the wind will be strong enough to keep the frost away with a better chance tomorrow night with lighter winds. Friday stays cold with highs near 11. Warm-up begins on Saturday and continues into early next week.
Wind.. Light SW winds early this afternoon will shift to the NW later this afternoon. Light-brisk NW continue tonight into tomorrow diminishing tomorrow evening. Very light west/calm Friday night into Saturday morning may set the stage for some frost then increasing SW winds develop on Saturday and continue into Sunday and Monday.
Watches/warnings.. Nil at this time but may see frost advisories posted for Friday night/Saturday morning.
Tropics.. Hurricane Edouard is passing well southeast of the Maritimes with no impact expected other than some larger swells along the coastal sections of NS/NL.
Space.. All quiet for the moment.
Today.. Sunny start becoming cloudy by noon with a chance of showers, light SW winds shifting to NW by mid afternoon, highs 18 by early/mid aftn then falling with the wind shift.
Tonight.. Showers ending early then partial clearing, light-brisk NW winds, lows 5 but warmer along the north shore.
Friday.. Cloudy periods and chance of a shower, diminishing NW winds, highs 11
Saturday.. Sunny, light-brisk SW winds, highs 16
Sunday.. Sunny with increasing clouds late in the day, light-brisk SW winds, highs 21
Monday/Tuesday.. ?????? rain possible