Dry Halloween but a wet and windy weekend expected for PEI.

Friday October 31st 9:15am.. An east-west ridge of high pressure located over the Maritimes this morning will maintain dry conditions for Halloween across the region, but things will quickly deteriorate on the weekend as a low pressure system develops off the mid Atlantic coast. This system will intensify as it moves NE and is expected to track into NS Sunday night then continue NE tracking across eastern PEI during the overnight hours then into Newfoundland on Monday. High pressure builds in over the region on Tuesday then cloud and showers expected on Wednesday as the next system approaches.

Precipitation... Rain should spread into southern NS after midnight tonight then into PEI near dawn tomorrow. Rain will continue through the day on both Saturday and Sunday ending Monday afternoon. There is a chance that a wintery mix of wet snow may accompany the rain Sunday night into Monday as the system begins to pull away and cooler air floods in. The best chance of any snow will most likely be western PEI. Snowfall through NB could be significant and EC continues to have a special weather statement in effect. Rainfall amounts across PEI Saturday through Monday afternoon could also be significant with 25-40 mms possible.

Temperatures.. Normal today then run a few degrees below normal through Tuesday warming up again on Wednesday.

Wind.. Light NW winds today and this evening. Winds will then shift to the NE after midnight tonight then begin to increase becoming strong northerly by Saturday night and continue into Monday morning. Diminishing NW winds expected later MOnday as the storm pulls away. Light NW-W winds on Tuesday shifting to SW on Wednesday.

Hazards with up coming storm..  Heavy rainfall and blocked water mains (leaves) may lead to some street flooding. Plugged building rain gutters (leaves) may also cause some issues. Strong winds could lead to some power issues especially along the north shore and higher elevations. Strongest winds should occur over Northwestern PEI. Storm surge along the north shore may also be a concern during the high tides.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI at this time but Environment Canada continues with a special weather statement for NB. Any folks traveling over the weekend into NB should be aware of adverse weather conditions expected there.

Forecast..

Today.. Sunny with increasing clouds this evening, light NW winds, highs 9

Tonight.. Overcast with rain developing near dawn, light NE winds, lows 3

Saturday.. Rain, increasing NE wins becoming strong by evening, highs 7

Sunday.. Rain, string NE winds, highs 8

Monday.. Rain tapering to showers and or flurries, strong NW winds slowly diminishing, highs 5

Tuesday.. Sunny. light W/NW winds, highs 6

Wednesday.. Showers

Tomorrow’s calm before the storm. Wet and windy weekend across PEI

Thursday October 30th 7:30pm  A weak ridge of high pressure will cross the Maritimes tonight meanwhile a low pressure system will develop off the mod Atlantic states vicinity New Jersey tomorrow night then intensify as it begins to track NE towards the Maritimes. There is still some uncertainty with the exact track that this system will eventually take but leaning towards a track that brings the storm in to NS Sunday night then across eastern PEI during the overnight hours then into Newfoundland on Monday. Rain is expected to spread into the Maritimes Saturday morning then change over to snow across NB Saturday night and continuing in Sunday ending Monday morning as the system pulls away. A ridge of high pressure builds in for Tuesday then more cloud and showers develop on Wednesday as the next system approaches from the west.

Precipitation.. Rain spreads north into southern NS late Friday night moving into PEI before dawn on Saturday. Rain continues all day Saturday and Sunday ending Monday. The rain is expected to change over to snow over parts of NB giving them their first significant snowfall of the new season. Western PEI is still not in the clear and folks up there could see a wintery mix. Rainfall will be significant as well with 30-50 mms possible.  So the best chance to see any snow from this system will be western PEI but the heaviest amounts are expected to fall across NB where temperatures will be colder.

Temperatures..  should be normal tomorrow then a few degrees below normal for the weekend and into early next week followed by a slow warm-up.

Wind.. very light NW tonight and tomorrow shifting to NE on Saturday as the noreaster develops and begins to move NE. Winds will increase to strong northeasterly Saturday afternoon and continue strong right through Sunday and into early Monday. Winds then begin to diminish later MOnday as the storm pulls away dropping off to calm by Tuesday night. The strongest winds should occur Sunday night.

Watches/warnings... None for PEI at this time but wouldn’t be surprised to see rainfall warnings and/or wind warnings issued for the weekend. NB currently has a special weather statement for potential snow. Any warnings that will be issued will most likely be issued early tomorrow morning ( 4:00am or so once the new data becomes available)

Halloween.. Continues to look dry with a light NW wind. Evening temperatures near 5.

Forecast..

Tonight.. Few clouds, light NW winds, lows 3

Friday.. Sunny start becoming cloudy later in the day, light NW winds, highs 9

Saturday… Rain, increasing NE wind becoming strong by suppertime, highs 7

Sunday.. Rain strong NE/N winds, highs 5

Monday.. Rain ending just after dawn followed by clearing strong NW winds, highs 5

Tuesday.. Sunny, diminishing NW winds, highs 5

Wednesday.. Increasing clouds, increasing SW winds, highs 12

Thursday.. Showers…

Showers tonight/early tomorrow expected for PEI..

Wednesday October 29th 4:30pm.. A warm front is currently lifting north across the Martimes and temperatures are responding accordingly. Unfortunately a cold front will also sweep across the region overnight tonight bringing an end to the brief warm-up. A few showers will also accompany the cold frontal passage. High pressure will build in over the region tomorrow then move east on Friday.. All interests then shift to the south as a low pressure system will develop off the New Jersey and intensify as it moves NE towards the Maritimes, This nor-easter is expected to now pass east of NS on Sunday evening although the all so important track is still not certain. Strong winds and heavy rain will accompany this system with a change mix or change over to snow possible over western PEI overnight Sunday into Monday with NB possibly getting significant snowfall accumulations. The system should pull away to the NE on Monday allowing an area of high pressure to briefly build in then an upper system approaches on Wednesday with  more showers.

Precipitation.. A few showers tonight into early tomorrow. Rain begins Saturday afternoon possible becoming mixed with or changing to snow over western PEI late Sunday. A few flurries possible for everyone on Monday as the system pulls away. Significant rainfall is possible with amounts in the 30-40 mm range. At this point I don’t see much in the way of snowfall accumulations for PEI unless the storm track shifts slightly east although western PEI may see a wintery mix Sunday night.

Temperatures..Mild today and tonight in the warm sector but temps should drop back to normal for tomorrow and Friday. Temps will cool down for the weekend as well but should remain above freezing mark. Temps remain a few degrees below normal for the beginning of next week slowly warming up through mid week.

Wind.. Light southerlies tonight will shift to westerly early tomorrow associated with the cold frontal passage then shift to NW on Friday. Increasing NE winds on Saturday becoming strong NE on Sunday. The strongest winds will occur later Sunday into early Monday. Winds will begin to diminish later Monday.

Watches/warnings.. Noe for PEI at this time but a special weather statement is in effect for NB for a potential snow event. Wind advisories may also be needed for the region Sunday/Monday.

Halloween.. Continues to look dry, Light NW winds, evening temps near 6

Forecast..

Tonight.. Cloudy with a few showers, light south winds, lows 10

Tomorrow.. Morning showers becoming sunny, light west winds, highs 11

Friday.. Sunny, light NW winds, highs 9

Saturday.. Rain developing, increasing NE winds, highs 6

Sunday.. Rain at time heavy, STRONG  NE winds, highs 5

Monday.. Showers or flurries ending, strong North winds diminishing, highs 4

Tuesday.. mic of sun and cloud, 7

Wednesday.. Showers

Showers end today, warm-up for tomorrow across PEI..

Tuesday October 28th 9:00am. The low pressure system that gave the wind and rain to the region yesterday is now located over eastern Newfoundland and continues to move away to the east, meanwhile a north-south oriented ridge of high pressure currently located through Maine will drift east today and should crest over PEI late this afternoon. A warm front will then lift north across the region late tonight followed by a weak cold front late Wednesday/Thursday morning. Don’t expected any rain with the warm but a few showers are possible with the cold front. High pressure will then build in for later Thursday into Friday then all eyes shift to the south as a low pressure system develops off the mid Atlantic states. There still remains much uncertainty with the track and timing of this system but looks like this system will track up the coast and into the Bay of Fundy Sunday night then across PEI by Monday morning. If this scenario materializes then expect rain and wind for PEI with snow across NB.  If the track is a little further east (East of NS) then the areas of snow will also shift east into PEI. Will need to wait and see how the models handle this in future runs.

Precipitation... Showers and drizzle will taper off today as the winds diminish. Chance of Showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning associated with the cold front. Then will need to wait and see how things unfold for the weekend but looks like a rain event for later Saturday into Sunday with a possible mix or change over to snow Sunday night into Monday.

Temperatures..  Normal today, well above normal tomorrow then slightly below normal for the remainder of the period.

Wind.. Diminishing northerlies today becoming calm by evening. Winds then begin to increase from the south after midnight becoming light-brisk for tomorrow afternoon. Winds then shift to the west with the cold frontal passage near dawn Thursday then to NW on Friday. Will need to wait and see how the systems develop over the weekend

Watches/warnings.. None at this time

Halloween.. Continues to look dry, light NW winds, evening temps near 6

Forecast...

Today.. Cloudy with showers or drizzle ending near noon, diminishing NW winds, highs 8

Tonight.. Cloudy, calm winds becoming light southerlies after midnight, lows 6

Wednesday.. Cloudy with possible showers late in the day, light-brisk south winds, highs 16

Thursday.. Morning showers clearing in the afternoon, light west winds, highs 10

Friday.. Mix of sun and cloud, light NW winds, highs 8

Saturday.. Rain developing

Sunday.. Rain ( Possible mix with wet snow Prince county), windy

Monday.. Flurries or wet snow

Showers and strong NW winds expected today across PEI

Monday October 27th 9:45am… A low pressure system moved across NS yesterday and is now located over northern Cape Breton Island. This system has now stalled and continues to intensify resulting in a more rain today as well as brisk-strong North winds. The low pressure system will begin to drift to the east tonight allowing a narrow ridge of high pressure to approach from the west. This ridge will crest over PEI tomorrow afternoon bringing light winds. Clouds will begin to move in quickly tomorrow ahead of a warm front which will lift north if the island tomorrow night. The attendant cold front will then sweep across the Maritimes Wednesday night or Thursday morning bringing a narrow band of showers. High pressure returns for later Thursday and Friday then things begin to get interesting as a low pressure system develops off the east coast. The computer models are not giving clear signals on the evolution so will need to wait a few more days.

Precipitation..Here are a few rainfall measurements for the past 24 hours across PEI.. Morell 30.0 mms, Stratford 34.8 mms, Charlottetown 35.4 mms, North Rustico 30.0 mms, Elmwood 19.2 mms, Bedeque 20.6 mms, Summerside 21.0 mms, Wellington 15.2 mms, Miminegash 15.5 mms.  Showers should continue today giving a further 5-10 mms with the higher amounts down east. Dry conditions expected later tonight into tomorrow and early Wednesday then showers develop ahead of the cold front Wednesday afternoon ending Thursday morning.  The weekend is looking unsettled but details are sketchy now. Looks like rain develops on Saturday  changing over or mixing with wet snow on Sunday..

Temperatures.. Running a few degrees above normal through Friday except on Wednesday when temps should climb into the mid teens. Cool down for the weekend.

Wind.. Brisk-strong NW winds today and this evening slowly diminishing overnight and tomorrow becoming calm by tomorrow evening. Winds then shift to the south tomorrow night increasing to light-brisk southerlies on Wednesday. Winds then shift to the W/NW overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning as the cold front crosses the area. Light-brisk NW winds then continue into the weekend.

Watches/Warnings.. A special weather statement in effect today for strong NW winds gusting to 80 KMH.

Halloween..  Is still looking dry at this point with light west winds, Temps in the evening should be near 7

Forecast..

Today… Cloudy with showers, brisk-strong NW winds, temps steady near 7

Tonight.. Cloudy with showers, brisk NW winds, temps steady near 7

Tuesday… Cloudy, diminishing NW winds calm by late afternoon/evening, highs 9

Wednesday.. Cloudy with showers developing later in the day, brisk south winds, highs 15

Thursday.. Morning showers followed by clearing, light-brisk west winds, highs 11

Friday.. Mix of sun and cloud, light west winds, highs 9

Saturday..  ???? Rain

Sunday.. ??? rain or wet snow

More rain today/tonight across PEI

Sunday October 26th 9:15am..  A low pressure system located in the Gulf of Maine this morning will move east today to be located near Cape Breton tomorrow morning. Rain associated with this system has already spread into central NB and will move across PEI this afternoon. This system will  intensify as it moves towards Newfoundland tomorrow resulting in brisk-strong NW winds. A narrow ridge of high pressure will then begin to build in over the Maritimes later tomorrow cresting over the region Tuesday afternoon but clouds will begin to increase later Tuesday as a warm front approaches from the west. The attendant cold front will then sweep across the area on Wednesday night bringing showers. This front will begin to pull away to the east early Thursday allowing another area of high pressure builds on for later Thursday into Friday. Things then start to get interesting for the weekend as a complex low pressure system approaches from the west. Parts of the Maritimes( Higher elevations of Cape Breton and Cobequid pass also northwestern NB) could see their first measurable snowfall of the season. Will have more details in later posts.

Precipitation..  Showers should redevelop this afternoon ending tomorrow afternoon giving another 20-30 mms rain to the island. Dry conditions expected later tomorrow through Wednesday morning. Showers redevelop Wednesday as the cold front crosses ending Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  Dry conditions for later Thursday through Friday then need to watch the system develop for the weekend. Too early for details.

Temperatures.. Normal today, slightly below normal for tomorrow then normal again on Tuesday. A one-day warm up for Wednesday with temps well above normal (15) then temps at or below normal for the remainder of the period with the temps trending cooler each day.

Wind.. Light SW today will then shift to the NW tonight as the center of low pressure moves east. Winds then increase to brisk-strong NW as the system intensifies on Monday. NW winds will then begin to diminish late Monday into Tuesday as the ridge of high pressure crosses. Winds shift to the SW Tuesday evening as the ridge moves east and warm front approaches.  Brisk southerlies expected on Wednesday ahead of the cold front then shifting to the NW near dawn on Thursday as the front actually crosses the area. Light NW then expected for Thursday.

Halloween.. Right now Halloween continues to look dry with a light winds. Temps near 6 during the evening.

Watches/Warnings.. None at this time.

Forecast.

Today.. Overcast with rain spreading across the island from west to east, light SW winds, highs 10

Tonight… Rain, winds shifting to the NW and increasing to brisk-strong after midnight, lows 8

Monday.. Showers ending during the day, brisk-strong NW winds diminishing late in the day, temps steady near 8

Tuesday.. Sunny start with increasing high cloudiness, light SW winds, highs 10

Wednesday.. Cloudy with showers developing in the afternoon, brisk South winds, highs 15

Thursday.. Showers ending early then partial clearing, light NW winds, highs 8

Friday.. Mix of sun and cloud, light NW winds, highs 8

Weekend…. ?????

Unsettled weather continues across PEI

Saturday October 25th 8:15am.. The low pressure system that has plagued the Maritimes over the past few days is finally moving away. This system was stalled off the New Jersey coast  on Tuesday-Thursday and gave flooding rains to parts New England and southwestern NB/NS. The system finally began to move and passed east of NS yesterday afternoon and is now located east of Cape Breton and continues to drift to the east. Rain for the most part from this system has ended with only a few lingering showers or drizzle remaining. A weakening ridge of high pressure located along the St Lawrence river valley will move east today crossing the Maritimes overnight tonight. Another low pressure system located in central Quebec will move east tonight as well and will begin to effect the region tomorrow night. There is lows of uncertainty amongst the models with the evolution of this system but looks like another round of rain beginning tomorrow evening. Much cooler air will filter in behind this system and some snow could be mixed in with the rain over northern NB Sunday night. The system begin to pull away on Monday but a cool NW wind should maintain cloud and a few showers across the island. A narrow ridge of high pressure will begin to approach from the west Monday night and crosses the Maritimes Tuesday afternoon giving clear skies and calm winds. Clouds will begin to increase again on Tuesday evening as a warm front approaches from the SW. The attendant cold front will then sweep across the region later Wednesday into Thursday morning bringing another round of wet weather. High pressure builds in for Thursday night into Friday.

Precipitation… Chance of showers of periods of drizzle today but a slow improvement is expected. Dry tonight into early tomorrow then rain begins again tomorrow afternoon ending Monday afternoon giving rainfall amounts in the 10-15 mm range. Dry for late Monday through late Wednesday evening then showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Temperatures.. A degree or 2 either side of normal today through Tuesday. A one day warm-up on Wednesday with highs near 15/16. Cool down back to normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Wind.. Light north today shifting to southerlies early tomorrow then shifting and increasing to brisk northerlies late Sunday into Monday. Diminishing northerlies on Tuesday dropping off to calm by evening then shifting to southerlies by Wednesday morning. Winds then shift to westerlies behind the cold front for Thursday.

Watches and warnings… None at this time.

Halloween.. Is still looking dry with light west winds, temps near 6

Forecast..

Today.. Cloudy with chance of a shower pr periods of drizzle ending later today, light north winds, highs 10

Tonight.. Mostly cloudy, light west winds, lows 7

Sunday.. Cloudy with rain beginning near noon tapering to showers in the evening, light south winds shifting to northerly late in the day, highs 13

Monday..Blustery Cloudy with a few showers, brisk NW winds, highs 8 (Cold day)

Tuesday.. Sunny start with high clouds invading during the day, diminishing NW winds becoming calm by evening, highs 9

Wednesday.. Cloudy, light south winds, highs 16

Thursday.. Showers, light west winds, highs 13

Friday.. Mix of sun and cloud, light west winds, highs 9

Saturday.. Cloudy, light SW winds, highs 9