Rain expected today and tomorrow across PEI..

Thursday October 23rd 6:25am..  A low pressure system located off the NJ coast this morning continues to intensify and move very slowly NE towards  the Maritimes and should pass east of NS by Friday evening. Rain at times heavy is expected to engulf the region today and taper to showers on the weekend. Brief high pressure may briefly ridge cross the area on Saturday night into Sunday morning then yet another low pressure system should cross the Maritimes later Sunday then intensify as it tracks across Newfoundland on Monday. High Pressure will then build in over the area for Tuesday and Wednesday giving a break from the showers. A cold front will then cross the region on Thursday bringing more showers and much cooler temperatures.

Precipitation.. Rain at times heavy continues to fall across parts of NS and NB. This area should move into PEI later today and continue into Friday. The heaviest rains should taper to showers for Saturday. Rainfall amounts should still be in the 30-50 mm range with parts of southeast NB and Southwestern NS expected to get in excess of 100 mms. A brief dry spell Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon then showers redevelop again with the passage of the second low pressure system later Sunday into Monday. Dry conditions Return for Tuesday and Wednesday then more showers overnight Wednesday into Thursday as the cold front approaches.

Temperatures.. Normal today then slightly above normal for Friday and Saturday. Temps then returning to normal for Sunday through Wednesday then a cool down begins Thursday.

Wind.. Brisk E/NE winds today and tonight diminishing to light-brisk NE tomorrow, light north on Saturday, light and variable on Sunday, increasing to brisk-strong northerlies on Monday.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI at this time but rainfall warnings remain in effect for southeast NB and southwestern NS.

Thunderstorms.. Very slight risk of thundershowers today and tomorrow.

Halloween..The extra long range forecast is now hinting at a low pressure system near Cape Cod for Halloween with rain spreading into southern NS. Temperatures near 8. This will of course change numerous times over the next few days but will start to become a little more accurate as we approach Halloween.

Forecast..

Today.. Showers becoming periods of rain at times heavy, light-brisk E/NE winds, highs 12

Tonight.. Rain at times heavy, brisk E/NE winds, temps steady near 12

Friday.. Rain at times heavy, light-brisk E/NE winds, highs 14

Saturday.. Showers, light N/NE winds, highs 14

Sunday.. Cloudy with showers redeveloping later in the day, light/variable winds, highs 12

Monday.. Cloudy with showers, brisk-strong north winds, highs 10

Tuesday..Mix of sun and cloud, diminishing north winds, Highs 10

Wednesday.. Cloudy, south winds, highs 12

Thursday.. Cloud and showers, north winds, cooler

An extended period of wet weather ahead for PEI..

Wednesday October 22nd 6:45am..  HAVING SOME PROBLEMS GETTING ACCESS TO THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL DATA THIS MORNING SO I DON’T HAVE ALL MY USUAL SOURCES.

A low pressure system has developed off the mid Atlantic states and will intensify as it moves very slowly to the northeast towards NS by the weekend. This system will have deep tropical moisture as well as a fetch off the ocean and when combined with the slow motion of the system then this result is an extended period of heavy rain. The big question remains is where the axis of heaviest rains will occur. This system slowly pulls away later Saturday only to be replaced by another low pressure system tracking from Quebec which will extend the cloud and shower activity through Sunday, Monday and early Tuesday.  High pressure finally moves into the region for later Tuesday and early Wednesday then yet another low pressure system track north of the area for later Wednesday intro Thursday.

Precipitation…  Showers should begin later today becoming periods of rain tomorrow and continues into Friday. The rain tapers off to showers which should last through early Tuesday of next week. The heaviest rain will occur later Thursday into Friday with amounts of at least 30 mms and a chance of 50-100 mms if the axis of heaviest rains sets up over PEI.

Temperatures.. Should run a few degrees above normal through Friday then near normal through the remainder of the period.

Winds.. Increasing easterlies expected today, brisk easterlies tomorrow increasing to brisk-strong NE on Friday..

Watches/Warnings... Heavy rainfall warnings are in effect for portions of southern NS as well as southeast NB. A special weather statement for rainfall is in effect for the remainder of NB. At this time (6:45am) there are no watches or statements issued for PEI.

Thunderstorms… Chance of a few rumbles on Thursday and Friday.

Forecast..

Today.. Increasing clouds with showers possible later n the day, increasing E/NE winds, highs 11

Tonight… Cloudy with showers, brisk E/NE winds, lows 10

Thursday-Friday.. rain at time heavy, brisk-strong E/NE winds, highs 14

Saturday-Sunday.. Cloudy with showers, light-brisk W/NW winds, highs 9

Monday.. Cloudy with showers

Tuesday.. Clearing

Extended period of wet weather starts tomorrow across PEI..

Tuesday October 21st 8:30am.. A deep area of low pressure that gave that wind to the region yesterday has moved off to the NE and is now located SE of Greenland, meanwhile an area of high pressure is approaching from the west and should cross the Maritimes later this afternoon. Generally clear skies and light winds will accompany this feature today, overnight. Things then start to get really interesting as a low pressure system develops off the mid Atlantic states and very slowly moves northeast towards the Maritimes. This system will have a good tropical moisture feed and expect plenty of rain through the weekend. High pressure returns for the beginning of next week.

Precipitation… Rain will be a little slower to move into PEI and is now expected to start Wednesday evening and continue into Thursday and Friday. The rain should begin to taper off to showers for the weekend then end by Monday. Still hard to go into details on amounts as the timing and placement of the axis of heaviest rain is still unclear but we could see in excess of 50 mms in places. Some models are even hinting at over 100 mms across Parts of the Maritimes.

Temperatures... Normal for today and tomorrow but should then begin to rise overnight tomorrow night becoming above normal beginning Thursday and extending into the weekend.

Wind..Light westerlies today diminishing to calm this evening then shifting easterly by dawn Wednesday. Winds will then increase to brisk easterly Wednesday afternoon and continue on Thursday diminishing to light southerlies on Friday Saturday and Sunday. Northerlies expected on Monday as this whole system finally begins to pull away to the NE.

Watches/warnings.. None at this time but anticipate rainfall warnings or statements to be issued later today.

Halloween… Extra long range outlook for Halloween.. Few clouds, light winds, temps near+5

Potato Harvest.. Dry for today tonight and first half of tomorrow.  Showers beginning later tomorrow and ending Sunday.. Possible rainfall amounts of 50+ mms for the period.

Forecast.

Today.. Sunny, light west winds, highs 10

Tonight.. Few clouds, calm winds becoming light easterly after midnight, lows 4 at midnight then becoming warmer with the increasing wind.

Wednesday.. Sunny early then increasing clouds with showers developing later in the day, light-brisk east winds, highs 10

Thursday.. rain at times heavy, brisk east winds, highs 16

Friday.. Rain at times heavy, diminishing SE winds, highs 18

Saturday/Sunday.. Cloudy with showers, light south winds 14/13

Monday.. Sunny, light north winds, highs 11

Cool and blustery today across PEI…

Monday October 20th 10:00am.. An area of low pressure developed on a cold front crossed the Maritimes yesterday. This front rippled northward along the front and is now located over Cape Breton. Left over showers from this system will be ending this morning as it pulls away. An area of high pressure will then begin to build in from the west later this afternoon resulting in clearing skies. Tomorrow remains sunny with diminishing westerly winds as the high pressure system crests over the area. Things then begin to get interesting….. An area of low pressure will move east from the Great Lakes then redevelop off the east coast near NJ. This system will very slowly drift to the NE  bringing an extended period of wet weather to the Maritimes. Computer forecast models continue to be unclear as to where the heaviest rains will occur but looks like a wet period beginning on Wednesday.

Precipitation.. I recorded 11.6 mms rain here in the New Haven from last nights rain, Alliston 17.6, Charlottetown recorded 13.4, Stratford 11.6, North Rustico 11.4, New London 7.4, Bedeque 6.8, Wellington 6.0. So the heaviest rains fell over eastern PEI from this past event. A few lingering showers this morning but improving from west to east. Dry tomorrow then rain begins to spread north from the coastal system on Wednesday but the timing is unclear.  At any rate, Showers should develop later Wednesday then transition to rain at times heavy tapering back to showers for Saturday and Sunday. Total rainfall amounts for the period could be in the 50+ mm range.

Temperatures.. Below normal today, seasonal for Tuesday and Wednesday then above normal Thursday and Friday. Back to normal for the weekend.

Wind..Brisk westerlies today diminishing to light westerlies tomorrow dropping to calm by tomorrow evening. Light easterlies on Wednesday increasing to brisk easterlies for Thursday, Diminishing SE on Friday.

Potato Harvest.. Showers ending today, dry tomorrow, showers developing later Wednesday. Rain for Thursday and Friday, Showers for Saturday and Sunday.

Halloween evening…  Extra long range. This is about as accurate as throwing darts but this is what the model is suggesting this far out and of course change as we get closer… Few Clouds, light west winds, evenings temps near 5..

Watches/warnings… Nil at this time.

Forecast..

Today.. Cloudy with chance of showers, slow clearing later today, brisk west winds, highs 7

Tonight.. Few clouds, light west winds, lows 4

Tuesday.. Sunny, light west winds, highs 10

Wednesday.. Cloudy with a few showers developing, light east winds, highs 11

Thursday.. Rain, brisk east winds, highs 16

Friday.. Rain, diminishing SE winds, highs 17

Weekend.. Cloudy  with showers (Slow improvement).. Light north winds, cooler

Cool and blustery expected for tomorrow across PEI..

Sunday October 19th 5:30pm... A north-south oriented cold front just crossed PEI and is now located between the Island and Cape Breton. Showers with the front have basically moved off to the east but an upper level low pressure system will be tracking across NB tonight into tomorrow giving periods of rain to the area. A ridge of high pressure will eventually build in across the region for tomorrow night into Tuesday giving mainly clear skies..  Things then start to get interesting with the development of a closed low pressure system off the mid Atlantic coast. This system will be very slow to move into Atlantic Canada and will result in a prolonged period of unsettled wet weather which should extend into at least Saturday. The computer models continue to be at odds with each other as to where the axis of heaviest rainfall will occur. The current thinking is the heaviest rain will be confined to southern Maine.

Precipitation.. Showers or periods of rain tonight into early tomorrow giving 5-10 mms. A potential rain event will be developing south of the Maritimes but details on timing and amounts are still unclear.

Temperatures.. Say good by to the warm weather  at least for a few days.. Temperatures will drop tonight and should remain below normal tomorrow with a blustery cold westerly wind. Temperatures return to normal for Tuesday and could go above normal towards the end of the work week but will all depend on the movement of the coastal low pressure system.

Wind.. Light north winds tonight incresing and shifting to brisk westerly tomorrow diminishing to light westerly for Tuesday then calm Tuesday night. Winds will shift to easterly on Wednesday as the coastal system organizes off the mid Atlantic coast.

Watches/warnings… Nil at this time

Potato harvest… 5-10 mms possible tonight into early tomorrow. Dry for later Monday into Tuesday then a big question mark for Wednesday through Saturday.. Looks wet but details are unclear at this time..

Tropical Systems.. Hurricane Gonzalo passed about 15 KMS SE of Cape Race Newfoundland early this morning and is now racing across the north Atlantic towards Europe..

Halloween.. Lets have some fun and see how the long range changes.. Right now Halloween evening 12 days out is look cloudy, light west winds, temps near 7.

Forecast.

Tonight..  Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, light-brisk NW winds, lows 4 by dawn.

Monday.. Clearing, light-brisk west winds, highs 7

Tuesday.. Sunny, light west winds, highs 10

Wednesday… Rain, light-brisk east winds, highs 12

Thursday.. Rain, brisk east winds, highs 15

Friday… Showers, light south winds, highs 17

Saturday.. Showers, light-brisk NE winds, highs 12

Showers expected tomorrow across PEI…

Saturday Oct 18th 5:15pm.. Another warm day across the region today but things are changing. A cold front is approaching from the west as is expedited to sweep across the Maritimes during the day tomorrow bringing an end to the warm weather. Cloud and showers will accompany this frontal passage. Much cooler air will invade the region tomorrow night and continue into Monday and Tuesday with low pressure hanging around over the northern Gulf which may give some cloudy  periods and chance of a shower. Things then begin to get really interesting… A low pressure system is expected to develop off the US east coast near NJ Tuesday night and slowly begin to move NE towards Cape Cod on Wednesday then stall south of NS for Thursday. The various computer forecast models are having difficulty with just how far north this system gets and are offering different solutions, but they do eventually bring this system into the Maritimes for later in the week. So for now will just wait and see what develops in the short term.

Precipitation.. Showers should spread across PEI from west to east tomorrow beginning in west Prince about mid morning, Charlottetown noonish, then eastern PEI mid afternoon. Showers should end before dawn on Monday with 5-10 mms possible. Slight chance of a shower on MOnday and Tuesday then will need to watch the coastal system mid week for a potential rain maker..

Temperatures.. Say good-by to the mild weather.. Temps stay mild tonight into early tomorrow morning  but will begin to fall behind the cold front during the afternoon. MOnday and Tuesday stay cold and blustery with highs a couple degrees below normal. Looks like temps return to seasonal cool values for mid week.

Wind..Light SW winds continue tonight into early tomorrow but will begin to shift to the west during the day then northerly tomorrow night. Brisk westerlies expected on Monday, light westerlies on Tuesday then shifting to easterly on Wednesday as the coastal system develops to our south.

Potato Harvest..  Showers spread across the island from west to east beginning in the morning end before dawn on Monday giving 5-10 mms. Chance of showers for Monday and Tuesday. Potential rain maker for mid week.

PEI Marathon..   Should be dry for the start but some showers may begin to push into the area by late morning. Expect light S-SW winds in the 10-15 KMH range with temps near 13 for the start climbing to 15 by noon.

Tropical Systems.. Hurricane Gonzalo is racing northward well off the east coast and is expected to pass over over just off the SE coast of Newfoundland near dawn tomorrow. The only effect for the Maritimes should be the pounding surf along the east coast of NS. Weather effects for Newfoundland can be found on the Environment Canada weather website.

Watches/warnings.. Nil for PEI but a Tropical cyclone statement remains in effect for NS.

Forecast..

Tonight.. Cloudy periods, light SW winds, lows 13

Sunday.. Cloudy with shower spreading across the island from west to east beginning in the morning, light SW winds shifting to northerly late in the day, highs 15.

Sunday night.. Showers ending after midnight then partial clearing, light-brisk North winds, lows 5

Monday.. Sunny with a few cloudy periods and slight chance of a shower, light-brisk west winds, highs 8

Tuesday.. Sunny with a few cloudy periods and slight chance of a shower, light west winds, highs 10

Wednesday-Friday.    ????? potential rain maker

Remaining mild through the weekend across PEI

Friday Oct 17th 4:45pm.. A north-south oriented frontal system is currently sweeping across the Maritimes. This system is tapping some tropical moisture streaming north from Hurricane Gonzalo giving a few heavier showers. The frontal system will move east of PEI this evening bringing an end to the more organized rainfall. Another cold front will cross the region on Sunday bringing more cloud and chance of showers. Chance of showers continue into Monday as a low pressure system tracks by to the north of the island. High pressure then builds in for later Monday and Tuesday. Interesting set-up then develops for mid week as a coastal system will be developing along the us east coast. This system will try and move north into the Maritimes later Wednesday into Thursday. There remains much uncertainty with system as it will also be laden with tropical moisture and it could give a significant amount of rain to New England and the Maritimes. Will need to watch this for next week.

Precipitation… Showers at time heavy ending later this evening then a chance of showers over night into tomorrow. Another band of showers expected for later Sunday into Monday associated with the second cold front. Should be dry for later MOnday through early Wednesday then will need to watch potential rain maker for later Wednesday into Thursday.

Temperatures.. Should stay above normal through Sunday then below normal for Monday and Tuesday. Temps return to or above normal for Wednesday and Thursday.

Wind... Light SW today through Sunday shifting to NW later Sunday associated with the frontal passage. Cool westerlies then continue for Monday and Tuesday dropping off to calm Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.  Increasing easterlies then develop through the day on Wednesday as the coastal system to the south organizes.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI, but a tropical cyclone statement remains in effect for NS.

Tropical Systems… Hurricane Gonzalo is expected to make a direct strike on Bermuda over the next few hours then continue moving NNE passing very near Cape Race Newfoundland between midnight Saturday night and Dawn Sunday morning. Tropical storm watches have been issued for the SE part of Newfoundland. High surf and large waves expected along the Atlantic coast of NS and Newfoundland beginning tomorrow.

Potato Harvest.. Heavier showers ending this evening. Few showers tomorrow. More organized showers again for Sunday evening in to early Monday.. Dry for later Monday and Tuesday.. Potential rain maker for mid week.

PEI Marathon (Sunday)…Few clouds to start, light SW wind, temps near 15. Skies should cloud over during the morning but rain should hold off til late afternoon/early evening with the winds increasing slightly becoming light-brisk Southwesterly. Temps steady near 15/16.

Forecast..

Tonight.. Cloudy with showers ending this evening, light SW winds, lows 13

Saturday… Mix of sun and cloud and chance of a shower, light south winds, highs 19

Sunday.. Becoming cloudy with showers developing late afternoon/early evening. Light SW winds shifting to NW later in the day, highs 17

Monday.. Clearing, light west winds, highs 8

Tuesday.. Sunny. light west winds, highs 10

Wednesday/Thursday.. ???????