A quiet weather pattern expected over the next few days across PEI

Sunday Dec 21st 9:30am.. Welcome to winter. Winter officially begins at 7:03pm this evening here in the Maritimes but the weather is anything but. A large but rather weak area of high pressure located in Quebec this morning will slowly drift across the Maritimes over the next couple days maintaining a quiet weather pattern over the region. All eyes then shift to the Great Lakes as a very large and powerful storm system develops on Christmas Eve then tracks northward into Quebec. Strong southerly winds will usher in very mild temperatures for Christmas. An occluded front will then push across the Maritimes on Christmas Day bringing heavy rain to the region but details are still sketchy on amounts. The system pulls away early Friday but a secondary weaker low pressure system is then expected to pass north of the region on Saturday bringing another round of rain (or snow to northern areas).

Precipitation.. Chance of a flurrie over the next few days then rain associated with the big system over the Great Lakes begins later Christmas Eve (Wednesday) becoming heavy on Christmas Day ending near dawn on Boxing Day (Friday).  Early rainfall projections of 30-50 mms possible but this will most likely change over the next couple days with updated data. Rain redevelops again late Friday night and continues on Saturday.

Temperatures.. Near normal (Maybe slightly above) today through Tuesday then the warm up begins on Wednesday with temps a few degrees above normal then the big warm-up occurs on Christmas Day when temps should climb into 8/10 range. Friday and Saturday cooler but still above normal. Temps should return to normal for the beginning of next week.

Wind.. Very light NE winds today and tomorrow shifting to SE on Tuesday then increase to brisk SE on Wednesday further increasing to strong SE on Christmas Day. Winds shifting and diminishing to brisk SW on Friday.

Watches/Warnings.. None for PEI at this time but I expect a special weather statement to be issued tomorrow or Tuesday for the upcoming weather event.

Forecast..

Today.. Mostly cloudy, very light NE winds, highs 0/-1

Tonight.. Mostly cloudy, calm winds, lows -2

Monday.. Mostly cloudy, very light NE winds, highs 0/-1

Tuesday.. Mix of sun and cloud, light E-SE winds, highs +1

Wednesday (Christmas Eve) .. Overcast, rain developing late, brisk SE winds developing, highs +3

Thursday (Christmas Day).. Rain at times heavy, strong south winds, highs 10 by evening.

Friday (Boxing Day).. Rain ending near dawn followed by sunny breaks. Rain redeveloping late, brisk SW winds, highs +4

Saturday.. Rain, SE winds, highs 5

Quiet weather pattern expected across PEI until Christmas Day

Saturday Dec 20th 9:15am.. The low pressure system that tracked across the island on Thursday is now located NE of Newfoundland. A brisk north wind developed behind this system and that produced the onshore flurries yesterday. Some Freezing drizzle was also observed for a while. These north winds will diminish today as the low pressure system pulls further away. A ridge of high pressure located west of the Maritimes this morning will also drift to the east then basically stalling over the region for the beginning of next week. Will need to watch a small area of low pressure passing well south and east of the area later Monday into Tuesday which could give some cloudy periods. All interests then shift to the Great Lakes for Christmas Eve as a very large area of low pressure develops. This system is expected to track northward into Quebec giving Rain and very strong SE winds to the area on Christmas Day. An occluded front will then sweep across the Maritimes on Boxing day bring an end to the rain but cooler air will flood with flurries. A trough pf low pressure will sweep across the area late Friday then again on Sunday with more flurries.

Precipitation.. Still s chance of a few onshore flurries this morning but a clearing trend is expected today. I recorded 6.6 cm snow over the past 36 hours here in the Emyvale area but most of that melted. although did record 2 cm snow base this morning. Looking at basically dry conditions for later today through Tuesday although some cloud associated with that weak system passing SE of NS later Monday into Tuesday. As ,mentioned earlier, a large storm system will be in the Great Lakes and charts bare indicating a significant rain event for the island beginning overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning tapering to showers Thursday night.. Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend as a couple a weak system track through giving flurries or rain showers.

Temperatures.. Basically at or slight above normal temps expected through Christmas Eve then well above normal for Christmas Day, Temps cool off to slightly above normal for the remainder of the period.

Wind.. Light winds expected through Christmas Eve then a wind event possible for Christmas Day.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI at this time but expect wind and/or rainfall warnings to be issued for Christmas Day..

Forecast..

Today.. Cloudy with a slight chance of a flurrie/shower with sunny breaks  this afternoon, light NE winds, highs 2

Tonight.. Mostly cloudy, very light north/calm wind, lows -5

Sunday. Sunny with cloudy periods, very light NE winds, highs 0

Monday.. Sunny with cloudy periods, very light east winds, highs 0

Tuesday.. Sunny with cloudy periods, very light east winds, highs 0

Wednesday.. Increasing clouds, with rain possible late and overnight, increasing SE winds, highs 2

Thursday.. RAIN AND WIND EVENT… +8

Friday.. Showers/flurries,  cooler, diminishing NW winds..

Flurries expected tomorrow across PEI.

Thursday December 18th 4:10pm.. A low pressure system located over western PEI late this afternoon will slowly drift to the NE toward Newfoundland tonight. Winds will shift to the NW after midnight tonight as the system moves NE of the island. Cooler air will then flood in behind it with onshore flurries developing which could give 5 cms snow locally. An area of high pressure will begin to build in from the west on Saturday crossing the region Saturday night. Light winds and clear skies should accompany this feature. The beginning of next week becomes rather complicated as the models are hinting at a system coming up the coast on Tuesday. This system should stay out to sea but needs to be watched for any changes then a large storm system will move into the Great Lakes for Christmas Eve with possible secondary development in the Gulf of Maine on Christmas Day. All of which leads to much uncertainty although the models are pointing at a mild scenario. Hopefully the models will come to better agreement over the next few days.

Precipitation.. Showers tonight should change to flurries once the wind shifts to the NW. Flurries continue tomorrow ending early Saturday morning.  Snowfall amounts of up to 5 cms possible  during the day Friday. Dry conditions expected for later Saturday into Sunday and Monday but will need watch that system in the Atlantic for Tuesday.  Things remain very unclear for the Christmas Holidays with that large system in the Great Lakes and possible development in the Gulf of Maine so for now will just wait for new data.

Temperatures.. Cooler air returns tonight but no real cold air in sight. At or slightly below normal through the weekend and into early next week. Models are hinting at a big warm-up for mid week.

Wind.. Light southerlies now will shift to light NW tonight, light northerlies tomorrow, light NE on Saturday dropping off to calm by Saturday afternoon. Very light winds expected then into Monday.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI at this time.

Forecast..

Tonight.. Cloudy with chance of a shower, light south winds shifting to NW during the evening and overnight, Flurries developing, lows 0

Friday.. Cloudy and flurries (5 cms), light north winds, temps steady near 0

Saturday.. Flurries ending then mix of sun and cloud, light NE winds, highs 0

Sunday.. Sunny, calm/very light winds, highs +1

Monday.. Sunny, very light winds, highs +1

Tuesday-Thursday.. looking mild but could be unsettled..

 

Rain tonight, showers tomorrow, flurries Friday expected for PEI..

Wednesday Dec 17th 4:40pm.. A low pressure system has developed in the Gulf of Maine this morning as expected and will track northward to lie vicinity Moncton near dawn tomorrow. Rain from this system is already pushing across southern half of NS and NB this afternoon but is expected to change over to freezing rain and snow for western areas of the region tonight as cooler air gets pulled into the system. The low pressure system will stall over PEI tomorrow then begin to pull away to the NE tomorrow night into Friday morning. Flurries will persist across the island into early Saturday as cooler north winds develop behind the system. High pressure will build in over the region late Saturday. The long range outlook into Sunday and the beginning of next week is unclear as several upper air disturbances will be crossing the region. Lets go with unsettled for now until the models become a little better aligned. The big question remains with the weather for the Christmas holiday. Computer models are trying to develop a very significant low pressure system near the Great Lakes on Christmas Eve and tracking it slowly northward into Quebec on Christmas Day. This would suggest a mild setup for the Maritimes ensuring a green Christmas for PEI.

Precipitation.. Rain spreads across the island over the next few hours tapering to showers near dawn tomorrow. Showers continue on Thursday changing to flurries Thursday night and continue through Friday and into Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts in the 20 mm range. Flurries on Friday and early Saturday may give a dusting or couple cms. Dry for later Saturday into early Sunday then chance of showers for the beginning of next week.

Temperatures.. are turning warmer tonight and should remain at or above normal through the period.

Wind.. Brisk easterly tonight, light-brisk southerly tomorrow shifting to westerly tomorrow night then northerly for Friday and Saturday.

Watches/warnings.. Environment Canada has issued heavy snowfall warning for northwestern Prince county with 15 cms possible tonight and tomorrow morning where cooler air prevails.

Forecast..

Tonight.. Overcast with rain developing over the next few hours tapering to showers near dawn. Brisk east winds, temperatures rising to 6 by dawn. Cooler up west. (snow possible for northwestern Prince county)

Thursday.. Cloudy with few showers, light-brisk south winds shifting to westerly late in the day, highs +6 in the morning falling to +2 by suppertime

Friday.. Flurries, brisk north winds, highs +2

Saturday.. Morning flurries followed by clearing, light NE winds, highs +1

Sunday.. Sunny, calm, +2

Monday.. Cloudy with chance of showers, light winds, +2

Tuesday.. Cloudy with chance of showers, light winds, +3

Christmas eve.. Cloudy, light SE winds, +4

Christmas Day.. Cloudy +6

Cloudy today, rain later tomorrow for PEI…

Tuesday December 16th 7:30am  A north-south oriented ridge of high pressure is located across NB this morning and will drift eastward to lie over Newfoundland this evening. Normally, A high pressure system brings sunshine but not in this case, expect mostly cloudy skies but winds will be very light. A low pressure system is then expected to approach the Maritimes from the Great Lakes later tonight. A secondary low pressure system will then develop near Cape Cod by tomorrow morning. This secondary low pressure system will begin become the primary system later Wednesday as it begins to move north. The system is expected to track into the Bay of Fundy by dawn Thursday then across PEI Thursday evening. Temperatures should be warm enough to support a rain event from this system but cooler air floods in behind it on Friday making away for onshore flurrie activity. Another area of high pressure will begin to approach the area later Friday then crest over the island on Saturday. The long range into next week is a real mess with various models giving all sorts of different scenarios into the Christmas holiday season.

Precipitation.. Rain should begin tomorrow evening tapering to showers by dawn Thursday morning. Another band of rain for overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Showers changing to flurries for Friday which should continue into Saturday as well with the onshore north winds. Rainfall amounts of 10-15 mms expected Wednesday night then another 5 mm Thursday night.

Temperatures.. Normal today becoming above normal for Wednesday and Thursday then return to normal for the remainder of the period.

Wind.. Light northerly this morning dropping off to calm  this afternoon/evening then shifting to southeasterly after midnight tonight.  Light SE on Wednesday, brisk SE in Thursday shifting to northerly overnight Thursday into Friday morning.

Watches/warnings..  None for PEI at this time.

Forecast..

Today.. Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, light north winds dropping off to calm this afternoon, highs +1

Tonight.. Mostly cloudy, light SE winds developing, lows -1

Wednesday.. Cloudy with rain developing by evening, light SE winds, highs +3

Thursday.. Cloudy with showers, diminishing easterly winds, highs 6

Friday.. Cloudy with flurries,  brisk north winds, temps falling to +1 by noon

Saturday.. Flurries, brisk north winds, +1

Cloudy with showers/flurries expected today across PEI..

Monday December 15th 6:15am.. A weak low pressure system passed well east of region yesterday and is now located over eastern Newfoundland. A combination of rain and/or snow (ice pellets) fell across the region as this system tracked by. Fortunately, the temps stayed above zero for the most part and most of the precip fell as rain. Also, the system did not develop as much as expected yesterday resulting in lower amounts over all. As I mentioned yesterday, the models were giving various scenarios yesterday from heavy rain to significant snow. I was leaning on the white side..  A persistent northerly flow today should maintain clouds with a chance of showers, drizzle or flurries but An area of high pressure will be building in from the west. This feature should crest over the island tomorrow evening with clear skies and calm winds. Skies will begin to cloud over early Wednesday as a low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes. This system will spawn a new area of low pressure in the Gulf of Maine Wednesday afternoon. This new low pressure system is then expected to track northward through NB on Thursday evening. PEI is should remain on the warm side resulting in a rain event  but significant snow is expected for portions of northern NB.  This system pulls away on Friday but the northerly flow in behind it should ,maintain clouds and showers/flurries across the region into Saturday morning. Another ridge of high pressure crosses the area Saturday.

Precipitation.. Shower/flurries or drizzle should persist today in the northerly winds off the water. Dry conditions expected tomorrow through Wednesday afternoon. Rain expected to develop Wednesday evening tapering to showers Thursday night then changing to flurries by dawn Friday morning. Flurries then continue into Saturday.

Temperatures.. Are expected to be at or slight;y above normal through at least then end of next weekend.

Wind… Brisk northerlies this morning diminishing to light this afternoon then to calm by tonight. Calm or very light northerlies for Tuesday shifting to light SE on Wednesday. Brisk Southerlies Wednesday night into Thursday shifting to westerlies on Friday.

Watches/warning.. None for PEI at this time.

Forecast..

Today.. Cloudy with showers and/or flurries. diminishing north winds, highs +2

Tonight.. Mainly cloudy, calm/very light north winds, lows -2

Tuesday.. Should be a real nice day !!! Sunny, calm or very light north winds, highs +2

Wednesday.. Increasing clouds with rain possible late in the day, light SE winds, highs +3

Thursday.. Rain, brisk south winds, highs 7

Friday.. Flurries/showers, north winds, +2

Saturday.. Flurries/showers. NW winds, +1

Rain and/or snow expected today and tonight across PEI..

Sunday December 14th 10:30am.. A low pressure system just east of Sable Island this morning is expected to intensify and track northwards today to be located over Newfoundland tonight. Precipitation from this system has just begun in the form of rain and “could” change over to snow as cooler air filters down with the northerly wind. If this happens, then 15 cms snow possible. Environment Canada has also just issued a special weather statement for central and eastern PEI with rainfall amounts in the 20-30 mm range. This will need to be watched for a change over to snow. This is a very tricky situation with the rain expected and temperatures so close to that change-over point. I would suggest be prepared for a wintery mix today and tonight. At any rate, this system will pull away tomorrow allowing an area of high pressure to build in from the west but northerly winds between these two systems could maintain onshore flurrie activity across the island tomorrow. The area of high pressure will crest over the region tomorrow morning with sunshine and very light winds. Skies will begin to cloud over again later Tuesday as the next low pressure system approaches from the west. This system is expected to pass over PEI during the day Thursday.  At this time, models are expected a rain event with this system but will also need to be watched in the event that the system tracks further south which would put the island on the cooler side. This is a slow moving low pressure system so precipitation is expected into Friday and maybe even into Saturday. High pressure may briefly build in for later Saturday into early Sunday. Long range models are hinting at a possible noreaster developing on Sunday but are currently keeping the track well off the coast. This will need to be watched in upcoming posts.

Precipitation.. As mentioned, rain began this morning and is expected to end before dawn tomorrow. Some models are indicating 25-30 mms rain across portions of Queens and Kings county while other models are only indicating 5-10mm. One model is even hinting at mostly all snow with 15-20 cms possible With the temperatures so close to the critical freezing mark, it wouldn’t take much to see the rain change over to snow. In fact mostly snow is expected in the higher elevations  of the Cobequid Pass in NS. Flurries expected tomorrow as the system pulls away. Dry conditions expected for later Monday into Tuesday then more rain is expected to begin late Wednesday and continue into Friday.

Temperatures.. Are expected to be at or above normal into at least neat weekend.

Watches/warnings.. A special weather statement has been issued for Queens and Kings county for potential significant rain.

Hazards.. Ground already saturated with rain from previous deluge from a few days ago so ground can’t absorb too much. Fortunately the heaviest rains are expected over eastern 2/3’s of the island. Rain could change to snow later this afternoon and continue overnight.

Forecast..

Today.. Rain changing to snow this afternoon, light-brisk north winds, highs 1 near noon then falling slightly.

Tonight.. Snow tapering to flurries near midnight. brisk North winds, lows 0

Monday.. Flurries, diminishing north winds, temps falling to -3 in the afternoon.

Tuesday.. Sunny, calm/very light winds, highs 2

Wednesday.. Clouding over with rain developing late, light SE winds, highs 3

Thursday. Rain 6

Friday.. Showers 1