Cool and blustery expected for tomorrow across PEI..

Sunday October 19th 5:30pm... A north-south oriented cold front just crossed PEI and is now located between the Island and Cape Breton. Showers with the front have basically moved off to the east but an upper level low pressure system will be tracking across NB tonight into tomorrow giving periods of rain to the area. A ridge of high pressure will eventually build in across the region for tomorrow night into Tuesday giving mainly clear skies..  Things then start to get interesting with the development of a closed low pressure system off the mid Atlantic coast. This system will be very slow to move into Atlantic Canada and will result in a prolonged period of unsettled wet weather which should extend into at least Saturday. The computer models continue to be at odds with each other as to where the axis of heaviest rainfall will occur. The current thinking is the heaviest rain will be confined to southern Maine.

Precipitation.. Showers or periods of rain tonight into early tomorrow giving 5-10 mms. A potential rain event will be developing south of the Maritimes but details on timing and amounts are still unclear.

Temperatures.. Say good by to the warm weather  at least for a few days.. Temperatures will drop tonight and should remain below normal tomorrow with a blustery cold westerly wind. Temperatures return to normal for Tuesday and could go above normal towards the end of the work week but will all depend on the movement of the coastal low pressure system.

Wind.. Light north winds tonight incresing and shifting to brisk westerly tomorrow diminishing to light westerly for Tuesday then calm Tuesday night. Winds will shift to easterly on Wednesday as the coastal system organizes off the mid Atlantic coast.

Watches/warnings… Nil at this time

Potato harvest… 5-10 mms possible tonight into early tomorrow. Dry for later Monday into Tuesday then a big question mark for Wednesday through Saturday.. Looks wet but details are unclear at this time..

Tropical Systems.. Hurricane Gonzalo passed about 15 KMS SE of Cape Race Newfoundland early this morning and is now racing across the north Atlantic towards Europe..

Halloween.. Lets have some fun and see how the long range changes.. Right now Halloween evening 12 days out is look cloudy, light west winds, temps near 7.

Forecast.

Tonight..  Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, light-brisk NW winds, lows 4 by dawn.

Monday.. Clearing, light-brisk west winds, highs 7

Tuesday.. Sunny, light west winds, highs 10

Wednesday… Rain, light-brisk east winds, highs 12

Thursday.. Rain, brisk east winds, highs 15

Friday… Showers, light south winds, highs 17

Saturday.. Showers, light-brisk NE winds, highs 12

Showers expected tomorrow across PEI…

Saturday Oct 18th 5:15pm.. Another warm day across the region today but things are changing. A cold front is approaching from the west as is expedited to sweep across the Maritimes during the day tomorrow bringing an end to the warm weather. Cloud and showers will accompany this frontal passage. Much cooler air will invade the region tomorrow night and continue into Monday and Tuesday with low pressure hanging around over the northern Gulf which may give some cloudy  periods and chance of a shower. Things then begin to get really interesting… A low pressure system is expected to develop off the US east coast near NJ Tuesday night and slowly begin to move NE towards Cape Cod on Wednesday then stall south of NS for Thursday. The various computer forecast models are having difficulty with just how far north this system gets and are offering different solutions, but they do eventually bring this system into the Maritimes for later in the week. So for now will just wait and see what develops in the short term.

Precipitation.. Showers should spread across PEI from west to east tomorrow beginning in west Prince about mid morning, Charlottetown noonish, then eastern PEI mid afternoon. Showers should end before dawn on Monday with 5-10 mms possible. Slight chance of a shower on MOnday and Tuesday then will need to watch the coastal system mid week for a potential rain maker..

Temperatures.. Say good-by to the mild weather.. Temps stay mild tonight into early tomorrow morning  but will begin to fall behind the cold front during the afternoon. MOnday and Tuesday stay cold and blustery with highs a couple degrees below normal. Looks like temps return to seasonal cool values for mid week.

Wind..Light SW winds continue tonight into early tomorrow but will begin to shift to the west during the day then northerly tomorrow night. Brisk westerlies expected on Monday, light westerlies on Tuesday then shifting to easterly on Wednesday as the coastal system develops to our south.

Potato Harvest..  Showers spread across the island from west to east beginning in the morning end before dawn on Monday giving 5-10 mms. Chance of showers for Monday and Tuesday. Potential rain maker for mid week.

PEI Marathon..   Should be dry for the start but some showers may begin to push into the area by late morning. Expect light S-SW winds in the 10-15 KMH range with temps near 13 for the start climbing to 15 by noon.

Tropical Systems.. Hurricane Gonzalo is racing northward well off the east coast and is expected to pass over over just off the SE coast of Newfoundland near dawn tomorrow. The only effect for the Maritimes should be the pounding surf along the east coast of NS. Weather effects for Newfoundland can be found on the Environment Canada weather website.

Watches/warnings.. Nil for PEI but a Tropical cyclone statement remains in effect for NS.

Forecast..

Tonight.. Cloudy periods, light SW winds, lows 13

Sunday.. Cloudy with shower spreading across the island from west to east beginning in the morning, light SW winds shifting to northerly late in the day, highs 15.

Sunday night.. Showers ending after midnight then partial clearing, light-brisk North winds, lows 5

Monday.. Sunny with a few cloudy periods and slight chance of a shower, light-brisk west winds, highs 8

Tuesday.. Sunny with a few cloudy periods and slight chance of a shower, light west winds, highs 10

Wednesday-Friday.    ????? potential rain maker

Remaining mild through the weekend across PEI

Friday Oct 17th 4:45pm.. A north-south oriented frontal system is currently sweeping across the Maritimes. This system is tapping some tropical moisture streaming north from Hurricane Gonzalo giving a few heavier showers. The frontal system will move east of PEI this evening bringing an end to the more organized rainfall. Another cold front will cross the region on Sunday bringing more cloud and chance of showers. Chance of showers continue into Monday as a low pressure system tracks by to the north of the island. High pressure then builds in for later Monday and Tuesday. Interesting set-up then develops for mid week as a coastal system will be developing along the us east coast. This system will try and move north into the Maritimes later Wednesday into Thursday. There remains much uncertainty with system as it will also be laden with tropical moisture and it could give a significant amount of rain to New England and the Maritimes. Will need to watch this for next week.

Precipitation… Showers at time heavy ending later this evening then a chance of showers over night into tomorrow. Another band of showers expected for later Sunday into Monday associated with the second cold front. Should be dry for later MOnday through early Wednesday then will need to watch potential rain maker for later Wednesday into Thursday.

Temperatures.. Should stay above normal through Sunday then below normal for Monday and Tuesday. Temps return to or above normal for Wednesday and Thursday.

Wind... Light SW today through Sunday shifting to NW later Sunday associated with the frontal passage. Cool westerlies then continue for Monday and Tuesday dropping off to calm Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.  Increasing easterlies then develop through the day on Wednesday as the coastal system to the south organizes.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI, but a tropical cyclone statement remains in effect for NS.

Tropical Systems… Hurricane Gonzalo is expected to make a direct strike on Bermuda over the next few hours then continue moving NNE passing very near Cape Race Newfoundland between midnight Saturday night and Dawn Sunday morning. Tropical storm watches have been issued for the SE part of Newfoundland. High surf and large waves expected along the Atlantic coast of NS and Newfoundland beginning tomorrow.

Potato Harvest.. Heavier showers ending this evening. Few showers tomorrow. More organized showers again for Sunday evening in to early Monday.. Dry for later Monday and Tuesday.. Potential rain maker for mid week.

PEI Marathon (Sunday)…Few clouds to start, light SW wind, temps near 15. Skies should cloud over during the morning but rain should hold off til late afternoon/early evening with the winds increasing slightly becoming light-brisk Southwesterly. Temps steady near 15/16.

Forecast..

Tonight.. Cloudy with showers ending this evening, light SW winds, lows 13

Saturday… Mix of sun and cloud and chance of a shower, light south winds, highs 19

Sunday.. Becoming cloudy with showers developing late afternoon/early evening. Light SW winds shifting to NW later in the day, highs 17

Monday.. Clearing, light west winds, highs 8

Tuesday.. Sunny. light west winds, highs 10

Wednesday/Thursday.. ???????

Temperatures continue above normal though the weekend for PEI..

Thursday Oct 16th 8:50am.. A low pressure system located near the Great Lakes this morning will move NE over the next few days passing across the northern Gulf of St Lawrence on Monday. An occluded front extending SE from this low will approach the Maritmes tonight and is expected to cross the region tomorrow. This front is expected to tap some tropical moisture from Gonzalo giving enhanced rainfall to some areas. At any rate, this front moves east of PEI Friday night bringing an end to the heavier rainfall. A second cold front will sweep across the Maritimes Saturday night into Sunday morning bringing an end to the above normal temperatures of late. Unsettled conditions will continue as the low pressure system crosses the northern Gulf of St Lawrence on Monday. The long range outlook is hinting at a coastal low pressure system approaching from the south on Wednesday.

Precipitation... Slight chance of a shower today and tonight but a more organized area of rain should spread across the Island tomorrow ending Friday night. Rainfall amounts are expected to be in the 10 mm range but cold be higher if some tropical moisture feeds north into the Maritimes. Right now the models are keeping the higher amounts a little farther south into Maine and western NB. Chance of showers continue through the weekend and into early next week as an unsettled pattern sets up. Will need to watch another system coming up the coast mid week.

Temperatures…  Will remain above normal through Sunday. At or below normal then expected all next week.

Wind... Light SE today increasing to brisk SE on Friday shifting to SW for Saturday and Sunday. Winds will shift to the north late Sunday as the cold front sweeps across the island. W/NW winds expected for Monday and Tuesday. Increasing easterlies on Wednesday as the coastal system approaches.

Tropical Systems.. Hurricane Gonzalo is expected to stay well off the coast is it tracks north over the next few days. Gonzalo should impact Bermuda tomorrow afternoon as a CAT 3 storm then move northward towards southeastern Newfoundland overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. Still unclear whether it will make landfall on the Avalon or stay offshore. Large waves and high surf should begin to impact the eastern shores of NS and Newfoundland later tomorrow.

Thunderstorms.. Slight chance on Friday.

Watches/warnings... None for PEI. Hurricane statement in effect for NS, Rainfall advisories in effect for central and western NB.

Potato Harvest.. Chance of showers today and tonight.. Heavier rain expected tomorrow with 10 mms possible. Chance of showers for Saturday-Sunday. Possible rain on Wednesday..

Forecast..

Today.. Cloudy with chance of showers, light SE winds, highs 18

Tonight.. Cloudy with chance of showers, light SE winds, lows 14

Friday.. Rain, brisk SE winds, highs 18

Saturday.. Cloudy periods with chance of showers, light SW winds, highs 18

Sunday.. Cloudy periods with chance of showers, light SW winds, highs 17

Monday.. Mix of sun and cloud, light NW winds, highs 8

Tuesday..Mix of sun and cloud, light west winds, highs 9

Wednesday ?????

Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend for PEI..

Wednesday Oct 15th 9:25am.. A NE-SW oriented cold front is currently located over the northern Gulf of St Lawrence and is expected to drop south today crossing PEI this afternoon. Clouds and a chance of showers will accompany the front. Brisk SW winds out ahead of the front will shift to the north with it’s passage. Another area of low pressure is located near the Great Lakes and is moving NE into Quebec over the next few days. This system will drag an occluded front across the Maritimes from west to east later Thursday and into Friday. Tropical moisture from Gonzalo will be drawn north along this occluded front enhancing rainfall with possible thundershowers. The frontal system moves east of PEI by dawn Saturday keeping hurricane Gonzalo off the coast. The weekend outlook keeps getting better with a chance of showers for Sunday into Monday.

Precipitation..A few showers developing this afternoon and continue into Thursday. Rain at times heavy on Friday ending before dawn on Saturday. Still a bit too early for amounts but could be significant as tropical moisture streams northward into the Maritimes on Friday. A chance of a few showers again later Sunday into Monday.

Temperatures.. Well above normal today, slight cool down begins tomorrow behind the cold front but temps still holding a few degrees above normal into Sunday. Another cool down begins on Monday bringing temps down to normal or slightly below normal.

Wind.. Brisk SW winds today will shift to the north this evening with the passage of the cold front. Winds will then continue to shift to the SE for tomorrow then increase to brisk southeasterlies on Friday. Hurricane Gonzalo will be tracking past Cape Breton on Saturday afternoon/evening on it’s way to southeastern Newfoundland but effects on PEI (at this time) will be nil.

Thunderstorms… Chance of thundershowers on Friday.

Tropical Systems... Hurricane Gonzalo is located east of the Bahamas this morning with max sustained winds of 125 MPH or 205 kmh making it a CAT 3 storm. The storm is expected to continue to move NW followed by a turn to the N then NE. A frontal system moving off the eastern seaboard should keep the storm offshore for the next 3 days but Gonzalo is expected to track into SE Newfoundland Saturday evening. At this time, the only effects for PEI should be enhanced rainfall on Friday but the system still needs to be watched very closely for any change in expected timing/track. Please refer to Environment Canada’s weather website for more up to date details on Gonzalo.

Watches/warnings.. nil for PEI but a tropical cyclone statement regarding hurricane Gonzalo has been issued for NS and Newfoundland.

Potato Harvest... A few showers developing this afternoon and continues into tomorrow giving light amounts. More significant rain possible on Friday as moisture from Gonzalo streams northward into the Maritimes. Dry for Saturday with a few more showers developing later Sunday into Monday.  Temps cool down to normal beginning Monday.

Forecast..

Today.. Cloudy, with chance of showers, brisk SW winds, highs 22

Tonight.. Cloudy with chance of showers, winds shifting to the NE this evening, lows 12

Thursday.. Cloudy with chance of showers, light E/SE winds, highs 17

Friday.. Cloudy with showers ( at times heavy), brisk-strong SE winds, highs 18

Saturday.. Clearing, light-brisk SW winds, highs 17

Sunday.. Cloudy periods with chance of a shower, light-brisk SW winds, highs 17

Monday.. Cloudy periods with a chance of a shower, light-brisk west winds, highs 10

Tuesday..mix of sun and cloud, light west winds, highs 12

Sunshine and warm temps continue today across PEI

Tuesday Oct 14th 9:15am.. A large area of high pressure centered south of NS will provide another warm sunny day across the Maritimes today but a cold front oriented east-west located across Labrador will begin to drop south spreading a few showers across the island by tomorrow evening. On Thursday a large area of low pressure will be moving from the central US into Quebec. This system will also drag a frontal system across the region on Friday. There is still some debate amongst the models whether this frontal system will tap some tropical moisture from Hurricane Gonzalo. At any rate, this front moves east of the region by Saturday morning but cold air and an unstable airmass should lead to cloud and showers into Sunday and Monday.

Precipitation.. Showers should develop late Wednesday or early Thursday with the showers becoming possibly heavy on Friday if the frontal system taps tropical moisture. Showers should end before dawn on Saturday. Sunday and Monday is looking better than it did yesterday but cloud and showers are still a possibility.

Temperatures.. remaining above normal for today through Saturday then a cool down to normal/below normal beginning on Sunday.

Wind….Light-brisk SW wind today and tomorrow shifting to N/NE late tomorrow then further shifting and increasing to brisk to SE by Friday, then SW on Saturday. The frontal passage will shift winds again to the W/NW on Sunday.

Tropical systems.. Hurricane Gonzalo is located just NE of Puerto Rico this morning and is expected to move NW for the next 24-36 hours then turn N then NE. The long range forecast has the system passing over or very near the Avalon Penn of Newfoundland on Sunday afternoon but take this as guidance only as the exact track will become more apparent once Gonzalo makes the turn to the N/NE.

Watches/warnings.. None at this time.

Potato Harvest.. Dry conditions continue today and most of tomorrow. Showers should develop late tomorrow or early Thursday then continue into Friday ending by dawn on Saturday. The showers on Friday could be heavy at times. More unsettled weather continues for Sunday and Monday.

Forecast..

Today.. Sunny, light-brisk SW winds, highs 19

Tonight.. Few clouds, light SW winds, lows 15

Wednesday.. Sunny start becoming cloudy with a chance of showers late, light-brisk SW winds, highs 22

Thursday.. Cloudy with showers, light east winds, highs 15

Friday.. Cloudy with showers (Could be heavy at times), light-brisk SE winds, highs 19

Saturday.. Mix of sun and cloud, light SW winds, highs 19

Sunday.. Cloudy with chance of showers, light-brisk NW winds, highs 14 near noon then falling through the day.

Monday.. Cloudy with chance of showers, light-brisk West winds, highs 10

Sunny and warm expected for the next couple days across PEI..

Monday Oct 13th 10:15am..  Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving day to all.. I decided to take a quick trip to Boston over the weekend hence the blog never got updated. Fleetwood Mac was playing at the TD center. All I can say is WOW.. What a concert…..      Now back to weather…..

A large area of high pressure is centered  over “Boston” this morning and will slowly drift to the east over the next couple days giving mainly clear skies and above normal temperatures to the Maritimes A SW-NE oriented frontal system will be draped across northern regions and will begin to drop to the south on Wednesday spreading cloud and a few showers to the region.  A more complex weather system located in the central US will also begin to move NE and should track into Quebec on Thursday with the associated frontal system will sweep across the region on Friday. Some of the computer models are hinting at this system may tap some tropical moisture from “Ganzalo” which could lead to some significant rain later in the week. Long range charts are indicating unsettled weather continuing right into next weekend and into at least early next week.

Precipitation... Showers should develop Wednesday afternoon ending Friday night. Only light amounts expected on Wednesday and Thursday but a risk of a more significant dumping on Friday as some tropical moisture gets pulled north. Saturday at this pint looks dry but rain begins again on Sunday and continues into the first few days if next week.

Temperatures.. Above normal temps expected today through Wednesday then a one day cool down on Thursday behind the cold front. Temps warm up again for Friday and Saturday then a more significant cool down begins on Sunday with below normal temps expected for the first few days of next week.

Wind. .Light SW winds today increasing to light-brisk South-westerlies for Tuesday and Wednesday shifting to northerlies late Wednesday as the frontal system drops south of the island. Light Northerly winds then begin to shift to the NE then east on Thursday. Winds continue to shift and increase to brisk SELY on Friday then SW on Saturday. Northerlies take hold on Sunday and continue into next week.

Tropical systems... Tropical storm Faye is located 900 KMS ENE of Bermuda and moving to the east with no impact on Canadian waters. TS Gonzalo is located in the windward island this morning and is moving NW. Without getting into too much detail, this system is “expected” to move northward over the next few days passing south and east of Newfoundland  on Sunday or Monday. Some tropical moisture may stream northward and interact with a frontal system crossing the Maritimes on Friday.

Watches/Warnings.. None at this time..

Potato Harvest.. Dry conditions and above normal temps expected for the next 2 days. Showers should develop on Wednesday and continue into Thursday with generally light amounts expected. A more significant risk of a rain event for Friday.  Saturday is looking dry but more rain for Sunday into Monday.

Forecast..

Today.. Sunny, light SW winds, highs 16

Tonight… Clear, light SW winds, lows 8

Tuesday.. Sunny increasing clouds late in the day, light-brisk SW winds,  highs 19

Wednesday.. Cloudy with showers, light-brisk SW winds, highs 19

Thursday.. Cloudy with showers, diminishing northerly winds, highs 13

Friday.. Rain (Could be heavy at times), light-brisk southeast winds, highs 18

Saturday..Mix of sun and cloud, light SW winds, highs 18

Sunday.. Cloud and showers, light-brisk north winds, highs 12

Monday.. Showers, north winds, 7