Cold tonight, Showers return tomorrow afternoon across PEI

Saturday 4:45pm  An area of high pressure will slide to the south of the Maritimes tonight and early tomorrow, meanwhile a warm front will slowly lift across the region tomorrow night. This front will  bring periods of rain and moderating temperatures to the Maritimes.  A low pressure system near the Great Lakes will track northeast along the front passing north of the area on Monday. A frontal trough is then expected to cross the area on Tuesday but confidence is low a some models are hinting at secondary low pressure development in the Gulf of Maine enhancing rainfall amounts for the region. Tropical Storm Rafael will be tracking northward off the east coast towards NFLD on Thursday any any westward shift in track will bring this system into the Maritimes.

Precipitation..Chance of a few showers/flurries tonight especially eastern regions then showers associated with the warm front should begin Sunday afternoon becoming periods of rain as the low approaches on Monday. Brief dry spell Monday night into Tuesday then a cold front will swing across the region bringing more showers to the area later Tuesday. With the models now down playing the east coast development, rainfall amounts have been significantly lowers through Tuesday but bears watching for any changes. Tropical storm Rafael will also need watching for any effects on the Maritimes but for now most of the associated rainfall stays off the coast.The next system will be bringing more rain to the region next weekend.

Wind..Brisk northwest winds tonight will slowly shift to the southwest by dawn tomorrow. Brisk southwest winds will continue Monday then shift to westerlies late Tuesday night as the cold front crosses. Northwest winds continue Wednesday through Friday.

Tropical Weather.. Tropical storm Rafael is located near St Croix this afternoon and will slowly move northward  tonight. The system is expected to intensify reaching hurricane status in about 3 days then approaching the Avalon Penn of NFLD Thursday morning. Any westward shift in track would bring the system closer to the Maritimes but the cold front swinging through on Tuesday should keep the system off the coast.

Temperatures.. Another cold night tonight with lows near 0. Temperatures will begin to warm up tomorrow reaching 10 by midnight. Highs near 17 both for Monday and Tuesday then becoming cooler on Wednesday returning to above normal on Friday

Forecast..

Tonight.. Few clouds with chance of showers/flurries down east, brisk west winds with lows near 0

Sunday.. Becoming cloudy with rain beginning in the afternoon, brisk southwest winds, temperatures rising to 10 by midnight.

Monday. Rain, brisk southwest winds, highs 17

Tuesday.. Cloudy with showers beginning in the afternoon, brisk southwest winds shifting to northwest late in the day, highs 17

Wednesday.. Cloudy with showers, highs 12

Thursday.. Sunny, highs 12

Friday.. Mix of sun and cloud, highs 18

Saturday.. Showers, 18

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