Showers and thundershowers expected across PEI later today..

Friday July 21st, 10:30am.. A cold front crossed the island early this morning with some showers and thundershowers. This front is now east of the island. A second even stronger cold front currently located along the St Lawrence River Valley. This front will sweep across the island later this afternoon giving showers and possible thundershowers. Some of these showers could be locally heavy. Cooler and dryer air floods in behind this front for the weekend as high pressure dominates. The beginning of next week remains unclear. A low pressure system begins to move eastward out of the lower Great Lakes Sunday night. Secondary low pressure then develops off the east coast vicinity Long Island. This secondary tracks eastward passing south of NS on Monday. The problem is that a couple of models track this system close to NS spreading cloud and a few showers while others keep it well south with no impact. The main low coming out of the Great Lakes moves slowly eastward passing south of NS late Tuesday into Wednesday with cloud and some rain. A ridge of high pressure crosses the region on Thursday and Friday with some sunshine.

Precipitation.. Few showers/thundershowers crossed the island this morning. Stanhope reported 10 mms but most places came in at generally less than 2 mms. Showers and thundershowers should redevelop by late this afternoon and continue into tomorrow morning. Some of these showers could be heavy giving locally significant amounts of rain. The weekend is looking dry. Monday should be cloudy but unclear if the rain will be spread across the region.

Temperatures.. Today is the last of the warm and muggies.. Cooler air floods in tomorrow and remains over the Maritimes through the end of next week. Just in time for my week’s holidays ūüė¶

Wind.. Light SW winds today will shift to NW late this afternoon. Winds could be locally gusty in any thunderstorms today. Tomorrow morning-noon could see some local gusty NW winds for a few hours. NW-NE winds then continue into mid week.

Thunderstorms.. Chance of storms later today which continue into tomorrow morning. Some of these storms could bring locally heavy down pours. Also a threat of small hail and gusty winds. This stronger activity if it happens should occur late this afternoon or early this evening and will diminish as we loose the daytime heating.

Hazards.. Wet roads in any rain. Ponding of water on roads in the heavier showers. Possible lightning activity and gusty winds. Some storms could be locally strong.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI at this time but will need to monitor the situation closely today for the possibility of strong thunderstorms which could prompt some watches/warnings. Remember “when thunder roars….Go indoors”.

Forecast.

Today.. Sunny becoming cloudy with chance of showers and thundershowers, light SW winds, highs muggy 26.

Tonight.. Cloudy with showers and chance of thundershowers, light-brisk NW winds, lows 14.

Tomorrow.. Showers ending early then clearing, Cloudy periods developing in the sunshine, light-brisk NW winds, highs 20.

Sunday..Sunny, light-brisk NW winds, highs 20

Monday.. Cloudy, chance of showers, light north winds, highs 19

Tuesday.. Cloudy, light east winds, 21

Wednesday.. Showers, 19

More showers expected tonight across PEI..

Thursday July 20th 9:30am.. A weak cold front crossed the island during the overnight hours giving the cloud and setting off a few light showers. The front will continue to move eastward off the coast of NS over the next few hours with clearing skies in it’s wake. High pressure will briefly build in today. A couple more cold fronts are then expected to sweep across the island over the next 1-2 days. The first front crosses tonight into early tomorrow morning with showers/thundershowers. The second stronger cold front is then expected to sweep through Friday night into Saturday morning. This second cold frontal passage will usher in a change of air with lower temperatures and humidities beginning on the weekend.¬† High pressure dominates with sunshine over the weekend. The models really begin to diverge beginning on Monday with the Canadian model holding unto the sunshine while the American pushes cloud and showers across the island so will wait a see how the models handle the beginning of next week.

Precipitation.. A few showers were reported across the island overnight with generally less than 1 mm reported except for the Caledonia area which picked up about 5 mms in a heavier downpour. Another chance of showers near midnight tonight than a better chance of a drenching rain tomorrow night. Dry for Saturday and Sunday. Chance of rain for Monday and Wednesday.

Temperatures. A couple more days of heat and mugginess. Cool down back to normal begins on Saturday and lasts through next week. So if you like the heat and humidity well then you only got 2 more days of it.

Wind.. Winds briefly shifted to the NW this morning but should shift back to the SW for tomorrow. A more pronounced shift to the NW occurs overnight Friday into Saturday morning increasing . Light westerlies on Sunday. Will need to wait and see how next weeks systems develop before going further.

Thunderstorms. As always, I am keeping a slight chance of thunderstorms with both frontal passages tonight and again tomorrow night.

Hazards.. Wet driving conditions in any showers, possible lightning activity. Saturday morning could see a few hours of gusty NW winds for anyone planning on being on the water.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI at this time.

Forecast..

Today.. Becoming sunny, light WNW winds, highs muggy 25

Tonight. Cloudy and chance of showers/thundershowers, light and variable winds, lows 17

Tomorrow.. Mix of sun and cloud becoming cloudy with showers/thundershowers in the evening and overnight. Could be a drenching rain, light SW winds, highs muggy 27.

Saturday.. Clearing, then a mix of sun and cloud, brisk NW winds, highs 20

Sunday..Sunny, 21

Monday.. Possible showers, 20

Tuesday.. Cloudy, 20

Wednesday..Showers, 16

Possible showers tonight across PEI..

Wednesday July 19th 9:45am.. A weak cold front oriented NE-SW is currently located through Quebec. This front will move SE and cross the island during the overnight and into the morning hours tomorrow giving cloud and chance of showers/thundershowers. Brief clearing behind this front tomorrow noonish. A second stronger cold front is then expected to sweep down from Quebec Friday night into Saturday morning with another round of clouds, showers/thundershowers. This second front will bring in a change in airmass with lower temperatures and much lower dew points/humidities beginning on the weekend. The long range is fairly quiet for Saturday and Sunday and even the first few days of next week as high pressure in control and storm track well south of NS. So a few more days of heat and muggies. cooler more comfortable weather ion store beginning in the weekend.

Precipitation.. Just a chance of showers after midnight tonight ending by 9 am tomorrow. Better chance of showers Friday night into Saturday morning which could give local brief heavy downpours. Dry for the weekend extending in to the first couple days of next week.

Temperatures.. The warm and muggies continue through Friday evening. Cooler air invades for Saturday morning behind a cold front which will continue into mid week.

Wind.. Light SW winds today and this evening will briefly shift to the NW behind a weak cold front near dawn tomorrow. Winds shift back to the SW for Friday then yet another shift to the NW  near dawn on Saturday morning behind the stronger cold front. These NW winds on Saturday morning could be strong and gusty for a few hours before settling back to light WNW. Light W/NW winds continue on Sunday and Monday.

Thunderstorms.. Can’t rule out a rumble of thunder after midnight tonight into tomorrow morning then again Friday night into Saturday morning.

Hazards.. Wet driving conditions in any showers late tonight into tomorrow morning then again Friday night-Saturday morning. Chance of lightning activity during the same time frame. NW winds could be gusty for a few hours Saturday morning for anyone planning on being on the water.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI at this time.

Forecast..

Today.. Clearing, light SW winds, highs muggy 27

Tonight  Clouding over with slight chance of a shower/thundershower, winds shifting to the NW near dawn, lows 19

Tomorrow.. Showers/thundershowers ending in the morning then clearing, light NW winds, highs 28

Friday.. Sunny clouding over late in the day with showers/thundershowers towards midnight, light SW winds, highs 29

Saturday.. Morning showers/thundershowers ending then clearing, light-brisk W-NW winds, highs 22

Sunday… Sunny, 23

Monday.. Sunny, 23

Tuesday..Sunny, 24

 

Warm and muggy conditions expected to continue across PEI through Friday.

Tuesday July 18th 6:20am..  A couple of things on the weather map this morning. First a frontal system draped East-west is located south of the Maritimes and is giving some cloud to the southern half of the region. Secondly a weak frontal system draped East-west is located the St Lawrence River Valley from Gaspe Bay РLake Ontario. Finally an upper level disturbance located north-south through Montreal is drifting eastward. The upper level disturbance will cross the Maritimes later today with some spotty cloud and slight chance of a shower. A cold front will approach on Thursday Thursday with some cloud and chance of a shower. A stronger cold front is then expected to approach from Quebec with a more organized band of cloud and showers late Friday. This front will also bring a change in airmass ushering in cooler and less humid air. High pressure then builds ion for Saturday with lots of sunshine. The long range into Sunday and Monday is hinting at a couple of low pressure systems tracking eastward but passing just south of the Maritimes. The associated weather will all depend on how strong these systems are and how close they pass.

Precipitation.. Just a slight chance of a shower exists today and again Thursday morning. The best chance for some rain now appears to be Friday night as that stronger cold front sweeps through.

Temperatures.. The warm and muggies continue today through Friday. Slightly Cooler air invades on Saturday.

Wind.. Generally a light-brisk SW flow continues today through Friday evening shifting to NW behind the strong cold front for Saturday.

Thunderstorms.. With this warm and muggy airmass, it is possible for a thunderstorm to pop up especially when a couple of weak weather systems go through that could act as a trigger so going keep with a very slight risk of an isolated thundershower today through Thursday then again later Friday as that strong cold front goes through.

Hazards.. Just a slight risk of lightning activity over the next couple days.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI at this time.

Forecast..

Today.. Sunny with cloudy periods and slight risk of a shower, light SW winds, highs muggy 28

Tonight.. Cloudy periods, light SW winds, lows 18

Tomorrow.. Mix of sun and cloud, light SW winds, highs muggy 27

Thursday.. Cloudy periods, very slight chance of a shower, light SW winds briefly shifting to NW later in the day behind the weak cold front, highs muggy 28

Friday.. Mix of sun and cloud becoming cloudy with showers late,, increasing SW winds, highs muggy 28

Saturday..Showers ending early then clearing, light NW winds, highs 23

Sunday.. Cloudy, 23

Monday.. Cloudy, 23

Warm and muggy conditions expected today across PEI..

Monday July 17th 8:45am.. A weak frontal trough remains draped in an ENE-WSW fashion across the Gulf, Northern NB. South of the front warm and muggy conditions prevail. The fog should burn off over the next couple hours but this left over moisture may be fuel for afternoon showers/thundershowers. An upper level disturbance in Ontario will ripple eastward along this frontal boundary tomorrow giving another chance of cloud and showers. Actually a series of weak upper level disturbances are expected to cross the Maritimes over the next few days with high pressure anchored to the south. These disturbances will give cloud periods and chance of showers. A strong cold front will sweep through on Friday with the best chance of showers and will also bring an end to the warm muggy conditions of late.

Precipitation. Only a chance of some afternoon showers over the next few days. A more organized band of showers expected on Friday as a strong cold front sweeps through.

Temperatures…The warm and muggies continue through Thursday. Cooler, more seasonal air moves in behind a cold front on Friday.

Wind…A light SW flow through Thursday shifting to NW on Friday.

Thunderstorms.. Chance of storms later today and this evening.

Hazards.. Possible lightning activity

Watches/warnings... None for PEI at this time but will need to watch thunderstorm development over NB today.

Forecast..

Today.. Fog dissipating, becoming sunny. Possible showers and thundershowers later, light SW winds, highs muggy 27

Tonight.. Clearing, becoming foggy after midnight, light SW winds, lows 18

Tomorrow.. Fog early becoming sunny, light SW winds, highs muggy 27

Wednesday.. Mix of sun and cloud, light SW winds, highs 27

Thursday.. Cloudy with chance of showers, light SW winds, highs 27

Friday.. Showers, 24

Saturday..Sun and cloud, 20

Sunday.. Sun and cloud, 24

 

The warm and muggies continue into next week across PEI.

Sunday July 16th 9:45am..  A weakening cold front oriented NE-SW will be approaching from Quebec then stall as it crosses PEI later today. This front will be the focus of some cloud and showers/thundershowers especially up west. Tomorrow, a weak area of low pressure will ripple eastward along this frontal boundary and will actually cause the front to reverse and retreat back to the north as a warm front. Again this will serve to ficus some cloud and another round of showers/thundershowers. Whats left of the weak low then crosses the Maritimes on Tuesday with a continuations of some cloud showers/thundershowers. Wednesday should be sunny under high pressure then another cold front begins to sweep eastward across the region on Thursday with another round of cloud showers/thundershowers. Yet another cold front crosses the area on Friday with more cloud and showers.

Precipitation.. Chance of showers later today as the weak cold front approaches.and again tomorrow  as the front retreats back north. Another chance of showers on Tuesday as the weak low pressure system pushes through. Best chance for rain appears to be Thursday and Friday as a couple of stronger cold fronts move through.

Temperatures.. Warm and muggy next 5 days with a cool down back to more normal conditions expected to start on Friday.

Wind...Basically  a light-brisk SW flow across the island until Friday when a shift to the NW is expected.

Thunderstorms..  Risk of a thundershowers later today, and again tomorrow.

Hazards..possibility of lightning activity later today and tomorrow.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI at this time.

Space.. A solar flare occurred a couple of days ago and the resulting CME has impacted the earth. The CME actually hit the earth about 7 hours ago (2-3 am ADST). This could spark some northern lights tonight if the solar activity continues. So if the skies are relatively clear tonight, go outside and find a dark spot and look north.

Forecast..

Today.. Sunny with cloudy periods and chance of showers/thundershowers,  light SW winds,  highs muggy 27

Tonight.. Clear, fog pastiches developing especially if we had some shower activity, calm winds,  lows 18

Tomorrow.. Cloudy periods chance of showers/thundershowers, light SW winds,  highs muggy 30

Tuesday..Cloudy periods and chance of a shower, light SW winds, highs 28

Wednesday.. Cloudy,  SW winds, highs 26

Thursday.. Rain developing, 28

Friday.. Rain, 21

 

The warm dry weather continues across PEI..

Friday July 14th 8:45am.. A frontal trough draped east-west continues to be stalled south of NS this morning, meanwhile high pressure centered in central Quebec will drift eastward today promising sunshine and light winds to the island today.  The highs drifts off to the east tomorrow but should still give ample sunshine to the region. Clouds will spread across the island late tomorrow as a weather disturbance in the Great Lakes approaches. This system should weaken considerably before it reaches the Maritimes but still looking at cloudy skies and chance of a shower. Sunshine should return on Sunday with high pressure just off the coast. A cold front will begin to approach the Maritimes from the NW on Monday. This front is then expected to stall over the region and eventually dissipate over the following few day resulting in unsettled weather through mid week.

Precipitation.. The dry spell continues across PEI. Only slight amounts of rain are expected through next week, with a chance of showers on Saturday into early Sunday. Chance of a shower again on Monday with the cold front. Difficult to go into details  for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. The front will be weakening but could still serve to focus some pop-up afternoon showers giving local downpours, so lets go for just a slim chance of isolated pop-up afternoon showers through mid week.

Wind.. Light SW winds today through MOnday shifting to northerly Monday night with the cold frontal passage then back to the SW for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures.. Warm and muggy conditions expected through the period.

Thunderstorms.. Can’t rule out some afternoon thunderstorms developing but these will be isolated.

Hazards.. Fairly quiet, could be some afternoon showers/thundershowers. Warm and muggy conditions may be an issue for certain folks. next week.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI at this time.

Forecast..

Today.. Sunny, light south winds, highs 26

Tonight.. Clear, calm, lows 13

Tomorrow.. Cloudy periods and chance of a shower, light SW winds, highs 24

Sunday.. Sunny, 27

Monday.. sunny, becoming cloudy with chance of a shower late, 27

Tuesday.. Sun and cloud, 28

Wednesday.. Sun and Cloud, 27

Thursday..Showers, 23