Cold today, warm-up begins tonight across PEI..

Wednesday, January 10th 9:00am..The low pressure system that crossed that region yesterday is now located over central Newfoundland and continues to move away. An area of high pressure centered over New York state will slide by to the south of the Maritimes tonight. Sunshine will prevail across the island but clouds and flurries are anticipated where these brisk NW winds blow on onshore off open water. Clouds will be on the increase tonight with the approach of a warm front. This front will become stationary oriented in a NE-SW fashion across eastern Canada extending down into southern states. A low pressure system will then approach from the American midwest and ripple NE along this stalled frontal boundary moving through the Maritmes Saturday night into Sunday morning. This is a very complex weather situation with snow expected north of the front and low track. A band of freezing rain and ice pellets expected along the frontal boundary and heavy rain to it’s south. So the positioning of this front will be crucial in determining who gets what. Right now, this front should be well north of the island on Friday, thus rain and very mild temperatures expected. The front is then expected to sag south late Friday bringing with it the band of ice pellets and freezing rain to the island. The low itself moves through late Saturday which will force the front to move through bringing a return to more seasonal winter time temperatures. Quiet for later Sunday through Tuesday with high pressure approaching from the west.

Precipitation.. Chance of flurries today where NW winds blow onshore off open water, otherwise dry today and tonight. Few flurries or rain showers tomorrow. Rain should begin about noon on Friday. Saturday is still unclear. Some models continue with all rain while other models are hinting at a prolonged period of freezing rain (ice storm) which would cripple the island. Still too early to tell as the positioning of that frontal boundary will be crucial.  Flurries expected on Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures.. Cold today then the warm-up begins after midnight tonight with temps rising above zero  by dawn tomorrow. Mild on Thursday with temps near +4 then the real mild air pushes north with temps expected near 10 by Friday evening. Now, does this front sag south or stay north. If it drops south of the island then temps will dip just below zero for Saturday morning. Temps remain near -1 for Sunday and Monday, seasonal for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wind.. Brisk NW winds today dropping off to clam early this evening then shifting to southerly towards midnight. Brisk SW winds for Thursday and Friday. If that front drops south of the island then winds will shift to the NE, if not then winds stay SW. At any rate, light northerlies on Sunday and Monday.

Hazards.. Drifting snow across roads today. Rain on frozen ground on Friday may cause local flooding issues. An extended period of freezing rain is possible on Saturday which could make a mess of the power grid. Still unclear yet as this will all depend on the position of that front.

Watches/warnings.. Environment Canada continues with a special weather statement for rainfall on Friday and freezing rain threat on Saturday.

Forecast..

Today… Sunny, brisk NW winds giving drifting snow, highs -8

Tonight.. Clear becoming cloudy after midnight, calm winds becoming light southerly, temps initially at -12 rising to near zero by dawn.

Tomorrow. Cloudy with a few showers, light-brisk SW winds, highs +4

Friday.. Rain, brisk SW winds, highs 12

Saturday.. RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. Best chance of freezing rain will be upwest. temps either -1 or +8 depending on position of front.

Sunday.. Few flurries, light north winds, -1

Monday, few flurries, -1

Tuesday.. sunny -5

 

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