Saturday, January 13th 8:00am.. A Frontal boundary oriented NNE-SSW is currently draped across western NB. Very warm tropical air is being pushed north and can be found on the east side of this boundary while arctic air is sagging south to the west of the boundary. A low pressure system located near New York City now is rippling NE along this frontal boundary and will move into the mouth of the Bay of Fundy early this afternoon then across PEI mid afternoon. The low then continues NE towards Newfoundland. Once the low crosses the island, the frontal boundary will sweep eastward ushering in the cold Arctic air bringing a return to winter as high pressure begins to settle in over the region for Sunday and Monday. Models are showing a coastal low pressure system moving NE well off the coast which may give a glancing blow to NS and eastern PEI with some light snow Monday night into Tuesday morning. Clearing quickly for Tuesday night with high pressure briefly moving through. Mid week looking interesting as a couple of low pressure systems make them selves known. First system moves through on Wednesday with light snow followed by a coastal storm moving by NS on Thursday. Too early for details.
Precipitation. Rain will continue to spread across the island today with the highest amounts across Prince county where 30-40 mms possible. Lesser amounts eastward across Queens and Kings. The rain will shift to freezing rain across Prince and Queens county later today as the colder air returns. Again, Prince county should see the worst of this freezing rain as well. Flurries expected on Sunday and Monday. Some light snow possible on Tuesday through Thursday with overall amounts in the 10 cms range but this will change as new data becomes available.
Temperatures.. High temperature records were set yesterday and again today but this will will come to an abrupt end this afternoon as arctic air returns. This cold air will spread across the island from west to east this afternoon arriving up west now where temps are already near zero. The cold air arrives in Charlottetown mid-late afternoon then finally down east this evening. The remainder of the period will be normal.
Wind.. Brisk SW winds now will shift to the north up west first early this morning then will have to wait for the low to move across the island before the northerly windshift for the remainder of the island but should occur later this afternoon..Northerly winds then expected for Sunday Monday and Tuesday.
Hazards.. Heavy rainfall over frozen ground will give a risk of local flooding as the ground is frozen and the water will pool on ditches and fields. Freezing rain is a threat for Prince county as they will cool down first ahead of the approaching low pressure system. Quick freeze in behind this system so any water or wet surfaces will freeze and become icy rather quickly today. The timing is western PEI cools down first with freezing rain then the freeze up. Queens and Kings county this afternoon.
Watches/warnings.. There is a number of weather warnings issued for PEI. which all can be found in the Environment Canada’s weather website.
Forecast.. The weather across the island will differ substantially from Prince county to Kings. Colder up west and the change over to freezing rain will occur first.
Today.. Freezing rain up west, rain east, Brisk SW winds becoming northerly, Temps have already fallen up west, highs 13 for Queens falling to -1 by mid afternoon, suppertime down east
Tonight.. Cloudy with flurries, light north winds, temps steady near -1
Tomorrow. Flurries, light north winds, temps steady near -3
Monday.. Flurries, north winds, -5
Tuesday.. Light snow. -3
Wednesday.. Light snow. -1
Thursday.. Light snow. -3