Monthly Archives: December 2018

More snow expected overnight tonight into tomorrow across PEI..

Monday, December 31st 7:00am..  Would like to take this opportunity to thank subscribers to this blog for your interest over the past year. Have a happy and safe New Year..

An area of high pressure is currently cresting over the Maritimes as it slides by to the east. An intensifying area of low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes tonight and is expected to cross into southern NB mid afternoon tomorrow then along northern NS into Cape Breton by mid evening. This track will see mostly snow for the island beginning overnight tonight and briefly changing over to rain tomorrow afternoon then back to snow tomorrow evening. Onshore NW winds on Wednesday will result in some cloud and flurries. High pressure crests over the island on Thursday. Yesterday the models were hinting at a significant storm for Friday. The models today are now downplaying this event and keeping it further south which is goof news as this had the makings for a significant event. Will continue to monitor this for any changes but now models are having difficulty coming up with a common scenario.

Precipitation.. Snow begins about 3am tonight changing to rain for Summerside and east about mid afternoon tomorrow ending early evening. Will stay all snow west of Summerside. Snowfall amounts of 15-20 cms for west Prince dropping to 10-15 cms for east of Summerside. Rainfall amounts of 5 mms for central and eastern PEI. Flurries on Wednesday.

Temperatures.. Cold today but a warming trend begins tonight into tomorrow peaking about mid-late afternoon in the +2/+4 range. Staying a little cooler up west hence all snow expected there. Very cold air then pours into the island on NW winds in the wake of this storm tomorrow evening dropping tom -6 by midnight. Very Cold for Wednesday and Thursday. Warm-up for Friday and weekend.

Wind.. Light west winds today shifting to SE overnight tonight increasing to brisk-strong SE tomorrow shifting to NW tomorrow evening. Brisk-strong NW winds continue on Wednesday diminishing to light on Thursday.

Hazards.. Accumulating snow begins about 3 am tonight dropping 10-20 cms snow. The higher amounts up west. Things will get slushie tomorrow afternoon as temps rise above zero and snow changes to rain. All this wet snow and slush will then freeze solid tomorrow evening as temps plummet about 8-9 pm. Blowing and drifting snow may become an issue tomorrow afternoon but the snow will be wet and changing to rain which should  put a cap on this.

Watches/warnings.. Snowfall warnings have been issued for all of PEI.

Forecast..

  • Today.. Cloudy, light west winds, highs -7
  • Tonight.. Overcast, snow beginning after midnight, light SE winds, temps rising to -4 by dawn
  • Tomorrow.. Snow changing to rain for central and eastern PEI mid afternoon then ending early evening, brisk-strong SE winds shifting to NW mid evening, temps rising to +2 by suppertime then falling sharply mid evening to -6 by midnight.
  • Wednesday.. Sun and cloud, flurries, brisk NW winds, highs -10
  • Thursday.. Sunny, light west winds, highs -12
  • Friday.. Cloudy with flurries, 0
  • Saturday.. Sun and cloud, 0
  • Sunday.. Sun and cloud, 0
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Cold today/tomorrow. More snow expected tomorrow night across PEI..

Sunday, December 30th 9:15am.. The low pressure system that gave the snow to the island yesterday morning is now located over SE Newfoundland and continues to move away. An strengthening area of high pressure centered near Montreal this morning is also drifting eastward and should crest over the island near noon tomorrow. Brisk northerly winds between our departing area of low pressure and the high pressure is resulting in onshore cloud and flurries across the island This activity should taper off today as the winds diminish. Thing s then start to get interesting.. A developing area of low pressure will approach the lower Great Lakes tomorrow evening moving NE right across NB/PEI Tuesday late afternoon/evening. A wintery mix of snow and rain will fall across the Maritimes from this system with snow to the north of the storm track. mostly rain to the south and a mix in along the track. PEI right now is along the track. Any deviation of the expected track either north or south will greatly effect the snowfall accumulations. The storm pulls away to the east Tuesday evening resulting n onshore cloud and flurries for Wednesday. High pressure crests over the island on Thursday then all eyes shift to the US mid Atlantic coast Thursday evening as a potential noreaster develops near New Jersey. This system will track NE along the coast moving right into the Maritimes on Friday with a snow/rain/wind event.

Precipitation.. Few flurries today. Snow begins near midnight tomorrow night potentially changing to rain  for eastern half of the island near noon on Tuesday then back to snow Tuesday evening as temps begin to fall back. Bit too early for Snowfall amounts as the exact track of storm is still unclear but looks like 10-20 cms with the 20 cms up west. Lower amounts down east. Flurries on Wednesday. Another snow/rain event for Friday.

Temperatures.. Remaining cold today, tonight and tomorrow. One day warm-up on Tuesday. Cold again for Wednesday and Thursday. Warm-up again on Friday then cold again for Saturday through Monday.

Wind.. Diminishing northerly winds today dropping off to calm tonight. Very light westerly winds tomorrow. Brisk-strong SE winds develop on Tuesday. Friday could be a very windy day..

New Years Eve..  Looks like snow developing near midnight. Little earlier up west. Wind will still be light so not expecting any drifting/blowing snow issues but could be snow covered roads especially later through the night.

Hazards.. Accumulating snow beginning midnight tomorrow night. Slushie roads on Tuesday………. I am more concerned with the Friday event. This could be a significant storm especially with the wind and storm surge.. Prepare early.. Get your storm chips!

Watches/warnings.. Special weather statement has been issued for potential snow overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Forecast..

  • Today.. Cloudy with a few flurries, clearing.. Diminishing northerly winds, temps steady near -8
  • Tonight.. Clear, very light NW winds, lows -15
  • Tomorrow.. Sunny start becoming cloudy with snow developing towards midnight, very light West winds, highs -9
  • Tuesday.. Snow and /or rain, brisk SE winds, highs 0 west/+2 east
  • Wednesday.. Clouds and flurries,  brisk NW winds, highs -10
  • Thursday.. Sunny, very light west winds, highs -12
  • Friday.. Noreaster… Snow, rain, wind.. 0
  • Saturday.. Clearing, diminishing west winds, highs -5
  • Sunday.. Sunny, light-brisk west winds, highs -9

Flurries expected tonight across PEI.

Saturday, December 29th 5:40pm..  An area of low pressure tracked northern NB last night and is now moving across southern Newfoundland. This system brought a wintery mix of snow and freezing rain to the island overnight as it passed through. The associated cold front which extends back to the SW from the low swept across the during the afternoon hours and is dropping temperatures back below zero. Cold high pressure will now approach from the west and should crest over the island Monday morning. Brisk cold NW flow ahead of this feature will result in some cloud and onshore flurries tomorrow. Clouds will be on the increase late Monday as the next weather system approaches from the lower Great Lakes. This system is expected to right across the Martimes Tuesday afternoon with another wintery mix of rain and snow to the island beginning near dawn on Tuesday. Some models are suggesting a colder scenario which would lead to more snow vs rain. Something to watch for in upcoming blogs. High pressure approaching from the west should maintain a cold NW wind across the island for Wednesday and Thursday with onshore cloud and flurries. Long range for Friday is hinting at another wintery mix of rain and snow for Friday.

Precipitation.. Could be a few flurries tonight into tomorrow especially down east. These flurries could be locally heavy at times giving a couple cms. Snow begins before dawn on Tuesday. This snow “could” change over to rain in the afternoon. Few flurries on Wednesday. Rain and/or snow on Friday.

Temperatures.. Falling temperatures tonight, remaining cold tomorrow and Monday. Back to normal on Tuesday then a return to the deep freeze for Wednesday and Thursday.

Wind.. Brisk NW winds develop tonight will diminish tomorrow dropping off to calm tomorrow night into early Monday. Light southerlies develop later Monday.

Hazards.. Wet surfaces will freeze solid this evening and stay frozen tomorrow. Watch for icy roads and sidewalks. Flurries may be heavy at times especially down east once the NW winds pick up.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI at this time.

Forecast..

  • Tonight.. Cloudy, few flurries developing once the NW winds pick up especially down east where a couple cms possible. Brisk NW winds developing, lows -9 by dawn.
  • Tomorrow.. Sun and cloud, flurries down east, diminishing NW winds, highs -8
  • Monday.. Sunny, increasing clouds late, light south winds developing late, highs -6
  • Tuesday.. Snow beginning near dawn (could change to rain), brisk south winds, highs 0
  • Wednesday.. Sun and cloud, flurries down east, NW winds, highs -8
  • Thursday.. Sunny, light winds, highs -11
  • Friday.. Snow and/or rain, +3
  • Saturday.. Flurries, -3

 

Wintery mix of snow/ice pellets/freezing rain/rain expected across PEI next 12-18 hours.

Friday, December 28th 9:00am.. High pressure is currently cresting across the island as it passes south of NS hence the very light winds. Clouds have invaded the region this morning ahead of a low pressure system in the upper Great Lakes. This system will track ENE today crossing the Gaspe Bay region tomorrow around noonish then continue ENE into Newfoundland tomorrow night. This track will put the Island on the warm side of the storm so looking at a snow changing to Rain event beginning near noon today. The associated cold front will sweep across PEI near suppertime tomorrow which will bring a return to colder winter time temps. NW winds on Sunday will maintain some onshore cloud and few flurries for eastern PEI. High pressure will then crest over the island on Monday. Clouds will once again invade the region later Monday as the next weather system approaches. This system will also come out of the Great Lakes Monday night and is expected to move right across the Maritimes on Tuesday but it appears that this will be a rain event as mild temperatures return. The associated cold front will sweep across the island late Tuesday evening bringing a return to winter like temperatures. Wednesday and Thursday looking cold and sunny along with brisk NW winds..

Precipitation.. Today/Tonight’s weather system is expected to bring about 20 mm of total precip across the island beginning mid afternoon as snow. Snow will transition over to ice pellets and freezing rain mid-late evening then finally over to regular rain after midnight once temps rise above zero. Snowfall/ice pellets amounts in the 10 cms range followed by 10mms freezing rain / rain. Rain tapers to showers by dawn tomorrow then changes to flurries near suppertime tomorrow as colder air returns in the wake of the cold front. Few flurries on Sunday especially down east. Rain on Tuesday.

Temperatures.. Warm-up begins today once the SE winds develop peaking near +4 tomorrow afternoon for a few hours then falling with the cold frontal passage near suppertime. Cold on Sunday and Monday. Warm-up again on Tuesday followed by a cold Wednesday and Thursday.

Wind.. Calm winds now will become light SE near noon then increase to brisk southerly peaking near midnight tonight with gusts to 70kmh. Light-brisk south winds tomorrow shifting to brisk NW late afternoon. Diminishing NW winds on Sunday.

Hazards.. Accumulating snow beginning mid afternoon. Brisk SE winds will initially give some blowing and drifting snow late this afternoon into the evening. Snow changes to ice pellets/freezing rain putting a cap on the blowing/drifting snow but things will then begin to ice over. Rain and snow melt will give water on roads/streets overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Wet/water surfaces will then refreeze tomorrow night. Will be messy driving beginning late this afternoon.

Watches/warnings.. Special weather statement remains in effect for PEI.

Forecast..

  • Today.. Overcast, snow beginning mid/late afternoon, increasing SE winds will give some local blowing/drifting snow once it starts, temps rising to -6 by suppertime.
  • Tonight.. Snow changing to ice pellets/freezing rain mid/late evening then rain after midnight. Brisk locally strong south winds, temps rising to 0 by midnight and +4 by dawn.
  • Tomorrow.. Showers changing to flurries late afternoon, light-brisk south winds shifting to NW late afternoon, temps steady near +4 then falling late afternoon to 0 by early evening then -5 by midnight.
  • Sunday.. Sun and cloud, flurries down east, brisk NW winds, highs -9
  • Monday.. Sunny becoming cloudy late, light winds, highs -3
  • Tuesday.. Rain, brisk SE winds, highs +3
  • Wednesday.. Sun and cloud, flurries east, brisk NW winds, highs -7
  • Thursday.. Sunny, light NW winds, highs -7

Flurries and remaining cold today across PEI..

Thursday, December 27th 9:00am.. As was the case yesterday, A quasi-stationary low pressure system located off the coast of Labrador continues to circulate cold air down across the Maritimes. These cold winds are picking up moisture off the open waters of the Gulf and Strait resulting in cloud and flurries. High pressure located south of Hudson’s Bay will drift eastward and will pass south of NS on tomorrow morning. Things then start to get interesting… A low pressure system will be approaching the Great Lakes from the American mid-west today. This system will then track NE into the northern Gulf vicinity Antiosti Island Saturday morning. This track will put the Maritimes on the warm side so looking at a snow changing to rain event for the island. The associated cold front then sweeps across the Maritimes early Saturday afternoon which will then usher in some colder air. Any left over showers will eventually change back to flurries by suppertime. Cold high pressure in control for Sunday and Monday. Models continue to differ on the next weather system approaching for Tuesday/Wednesday. So will just continue to watch and see.

Precipitation.. Onshore cloud and flurries today especially down east where these flurries could be heavy at times giving 2-4 cms. Snow begins tomorrow mid afternoon changing to rain through the evening then tapering to showers towards dawn. Showers change back to flurries Saturday afternoon. Snowfall amounts possibly in the 5-10 cm range before the change over. Chance of freezing rain during the change over as well Friday late afternoon into the evening hours.

Temperatures.. Remaining cold today and tonight. Warm-up begins tomorrow afternoon with temps expected to climb above zero through the evening hours. Stays mild overnight into Saturday early afternoon then temps begin to fall with the cold frontal passage dipping back below zero Saturday early evening. Cold again for Sunday and Monday then need to wait and see how Tuesday’s systems unfold.

Wind.. Brisk NW winds today should diminish to light westerly tonight. Increasing SE winds tomorrow afternoon becoming peaking near midnight with gusts to 70 possible. NW winds develop in behind the cold front on Saturday afternoon.

Hazards.. Cold wind chill temps today and tonight for those outside. Possible heavy flurries or snow squalls down east today giving changing roads conditions and lows visibility in blowing snow. Accumulating snow begins tomorrow afternoon changing to rain through the evening with a risk of freezing rain during the changeover. Could be some eater issues due frozen ground. Wet surfaces refreezing Saturday afternoon.

Watches/warnings.. Special weather statement remains in effect for tomorrow.

Forecast..

  • Today.. Sun and cloud, flurries/ snow squalls. Brisk NW winds giving local blowing/drifting snow, highs -10
  • Tonight.. Few clouds, chance of flurries, light W-NW winds, lows -15
  • Tomorrow.. Overcast, snow beginning early afternoon changing to rain  trough the evening. Risk of freezing rain during the changeover. Brisk SE winds developing, temps rising to +1 by mid evening and +4 overnight.
  • Saturday.. Showers changing to flurries, winds shifting to NW, temps near 4 at noon falling to 0 by suppertime.
  • Sunday.. Sun and cloud, Chance of flurries, NW winds, highs -11
  • Monday.. Sun and cloud, west winds, highs -4
  • Tuesday.. Flurries -3

Wednesday.. Chance of snow. +2

Remaining cold next couple days across PEI.

Wednesday, December 26th 9:30am..  A strong low pressure system located over Labrador this morning continues to circulate cold arctic air down across the Maritmes  on NW winds. Clouds and few flurries are expected where these NW winds blow onshore especially down east where a couple cms snow possible. High pressure approaching from the wets will slide south of NS late Thursday night or early Friday morning. Things then start to get interesting. A low pressure system will be approaching the Great Lakes Thursday night then continue to track northeastward through Quebec on Friday then into the northern Gulf by Saturday morning. This track will put the island on the warm side this expecting snow to change over to rain Friday evening as warm air invades on brisk southerly winds. The associated cold front will sweep eastward across the Maritimes on Saturday and is expected to cross the island near noon. Any left over rain showers will change over to flurries as temps fall in the wake of the cold front. Cold high pressure should bring some sunshine for Sunday. Models are still unclear early next week with a couple of different scenarios possible. One possibility has a weak low pressure system approaching from the upper Great Lakes on Tuesday with some light snow. Will need to continue to watch this for neat week, but in the mean time looks like messy weather to deal with on Friday..

Precipitation.. Chance of s few flurries down east next couple which could give a few cms. Snow begins near noon on Friday changing to rain by suppertime then tapering to showers by midnight. These showers change back to flurries Saturday afternoon. Snowfall amounts Friday afternoon in the 5-8 cms range with the higher amounts up west in northern Prince county. There could be a period of freezing rain during the change-over. Rainfall amounts could push 20 mms. These are early numbers and can easily change as the weather system develops.

Temperatures.. Remaining cold today and tomorrow. Warm-up begins later Friday peaking near noon on Saturday at +6 or so then falling back through the afternoon. Very cold on Sunday then near normal begins on Monday.

Wind. Light-brisk NW winds today and tomorrow dropping off to calm tomorrow night. Southerlies develop on Friday peaking late in the day.

New Years.. Uncertainty now puts this time period into questions with a couple of different scenarios possible although it appears nothing too extreme.

Hazards.. Possible heavy flurries/ snow squalls down east which will give changeable weather and road conditions over short distances next couple days. Accumulating Snow begins Friday noonish..Significant rain over bare (snow pack wont be significant) frozen ground may lead to water issues with water ponding on roads and ditches. Water got no where to go.

Watches/warnings.. Special weather statement has been issued for potential significant weather on Friday/Saturday.

Forecast..

  • Today.. Sun and cloud, chance of flurries, light-brisk W-NW winds, highs -6
  • Tonight.. Few clouds, chance of flurries, light-brisk W-NW winds, lows -9
  • Tomorrow.. Sun and cloud, chance of flurries, light-brisk W-NW winds, highs -9
  • Friday.. Overcast. Snow beginning near noon changing to rain by suppertime. Risk of freezing rain during the change over, increasing NE winds, highs +1 by late evening.
  • Saturday.. Showers changing to flurries, brisk SW winds, shifting to NW in the afternoon, highs +6 near noon then falling 0 by suppertime.
  • Sunday.. Sun and cloud, chance of a flurrie, light-brisk NW winds, highs -11
  • Monday.. Flurries, -4
  • Tuesday.. Sun and cloud, 0

Sun/Cloud/Flurries/Cool conditions expected across PEI next few days..

Tuesday, December 25th 8:00am..     Merry Christmas.

A strong low pressure system located well to the north if giving brisk NW winds across the island this morning. Clouds and few flurries are developing Where these winds blow onshore. A large are of high pressure currently located in the Great Lakes is also helping to maintain these NW winds across the region over the next couple days. This feature will slow drift eastward and is expected to pass south of NS Thursday evening. Our next weather system will come out of Colorado on Thursday and move into the Great Lakes on Friday. A warm front extending eastward from the low will stretch into NB by Friday morning. Snow will spread across the island by noon on Friday as the warm front continues to approach. The storm itself will track NE along the ST Lawrence river valley later Friday to be located in the northern Gulf Saturday morning. This track will put PEI on the warm side resulting on a change over to rain by Friday evening. The associated cold front sweep across the island near noon on Saturday which will usher in a return to colder conditions. Any left over showers will change back to snow. Cold high pressure builds in for Sunday. Was watching a potential snow event for Monday. Latest models are tracking this system further south limiting any effects. Will continue to watch this for early next week.

Precipitation.. Few flurries especially down east over the next couple days n the onshore NW winds. Snow begins early Friday afternoon changing to rain near suppertime then tapering to showers by midnight. These showers then change back to flurries near noon Saturday. Snowfall amounts Friday could be 5-8 cms before changing to rain.

Temperatures.. Below normal expected through Tuesday of next week except for a brief warm-up Friday evening through Saturday noon when temps will be a few degrees above normal.

Wind.. Light-brisk today through Thursday evening dropping off to calm Thursday night into Friday morning. Increasing SE winds develop on Friday.

Hazards.. Could be a couple cms snow in onshore flurries down east over the next couple days.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI at this time..

Forecast..

  • Today.. Sun and cloud, chance of flurries, light-brisk W-NW winds, highs -8
  • Tonight.. Few clouds, light NW winds, lows -10
  • Tomorrow.. Sun and cloud, chance of flurries, light-brisk W-NW winds, highs -8
  • Thursday.. Sun and cloud, chance of flurries, light-brisk W-NW winds, highs -9
  • Friday.. Overcast, snow beginning near noon changing to rain by evening, brisk south winds, highs +5 by late evening.
  • Saturday.. Showers changing to flurries near noon, brisk SW winds shifting to NW, temps near +5 falling to 0 by suppertime
  • Sunday.. Sun and cloud, chance of flurries, diminishing NW winds, highs -6
  • Monday.. Sun and cloud, chance of flurries, light-brisk NW winds, highs -8
  • Tuesday.. Sun and cloud, chance of flurries, light-brisk NW winds, highs -11