Friday, January 18th 8:00am.. An area of high pressure is currently centered just est of Cape Breton and continues to drift away to the east. Skies will cloud up today with some flurries this evening and overnight associated with a trough of low pressure which will cross the island overnight tonight. High pressure will briefly return tomorrow with some clearing then things begin to get really interesting. An intensifying area of low pressure will move ENE across the American midwest to be located near NYC Sunday morning breakfast. This impressive nor-easter then moves NE ro be located near southern NS by Sunday evening then continue NE along the spine of NS to be located in the eastern Gulf of Northumberland Strait between PEI and Cape Breton near dawn Monday morning then continue NE towards Newfoundland later Monday. This storm will bring a significant amount of snow, rain and wind to the island beginning near dawn on Sunday morning with the bulk of the snow to the NW of thew storm track, rain to the SE and a wintery mix of both along and just either side of the track. It is imperative to note that this storm track is not a sure bet and any deviation in track will shift the rain/snow line accordingly. Cold air returns on the back side of this storm on Monday as it pulls away. High pressure will crest over the island Tuesday night then we get set for another potential weather system which will is expected to track across the Maritimes Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The models are not in agreement with the strength of this system so will continue to watch but first lets get through Sunday/Monday storm first.
Precipitation.. Few flurries or periods of light snow later this afternoon ending towards dawn tomorrow giving 1-2 cms. Snow begins near dawn Sunday morning mixing with or changing to rain across central and eastern PEI mid afternoon then back to snow near dawn Monday morning tapering to flurries in the afternoon. Western PEI should stay mostly all snow. There is a risk of freezing rain during the change over. The bulk of the snow will fall over western PEI with lesser amounts across central and eastern PEI due to change over to rain. Snowfall amounts start at 15-20 cms for Kings increasing to 20-30 cms for Queens and 30-40cms for Prince. Rainfall amounts of 5 mms up west increasing to 20 mms across Charlottetown and 30 mms down east. Again, I must stress that any deviation in expected track either to the west or east will shift the rain/snow line accordingly and alter expected amounts.
Temperatures.. Cold today, moderating tonight peaking just after midnight tonight near 0/+1 then falling to -1 near dawn tomorrow then falling through the morning dropping to -15 by noon. Temps begin to moderate again Sunday afternoon Sunday evening as warm as +5. This will depend on storm track with the warmest temps along and east of the track so western PEI should only warm to the freezing mark. Temps fall on Monday as the storm pulls away.
Wind.. Light SE winds today shifting to NW near dawn tomorrow dropping back to calm Saturday nigh into Sunday morning. Increasing East winds develop on Sunday becoming strong Sunday evening shifting to NW on Monday.
Hazards.. Flash freeze near dawn tomorrow then the storm on Sunday.. Wow.. Where do we start.. Expect all hazards associated with a winter storm. Snow and Wind. In addition, water issues due heavy rain and snow melt across central and eastern PEI Sunday night. Wet/slushie surfaces then freeze on Monday as temps drop. Strong Wind may give travel restrictions on the bridge later Sunday into early Monday.
Watches/warnings.. Special weather statement remains in effect for PEI.
- Today.. Sunny start becoming cloud, light-brisk South winds, highs -8
- Tonight.. Cloudy with flurries or light snow ending towards dawn giving 1-2 cms, light-brisk south winds shifting to NW near dawn temps rising to 0 near midnight then falling to -1 by dawn.
- Tomorrow.. Cloudy periods, brisk NW winds, temps falling from -1 at dawn to -15 by noon then -20 by suppertime.
- Sunday.. Snow beginning near dawn changing to rain mid afternoon. Better chance of rain for east. brisk-strong east winds, temps rising to 0 / +5 late
- Monday.. Flurries, brisk-strong NW winds, temps falling -10 by noon.
- Tuesday.. Morning flurries becoming sunny, brisk-strong NW winds, highs -10
- Wednesday.. Sunny start becoming cloudy with snow developing late, SE winds, highs 0
- Thursday.. Snow ?? -7