Saturday, January 19th 9:15am.. A trough of low pressure crossed the island yesterday evening and overnight which resulted in some cloud and flurries. This feature is now east with a weak ridge of high pressure approaching now. Brisk NW winds will occur ahead of this feature dropping off to calm tonight. Clouds will begin to invade the region overnight tonight as an intensifying area of low pressure approaches from the US mid Atlantic coast. The computer models have shifted the expected track of the storm further west into the Bay of Fundy then along the Fundy coast of NB then across western PEI near mid morning in Monday. This track will mean a warmer scenario for PEI resulting in less snow but more rain. Much colder air returns Monday morning as the storms lifts NE into the Gulf. Clouds wind and flurries continue into Tuesday s the storm systems Lingers in the northern Gulf. High pressure crests over the island on Wednesday with cold sunshine then another winter system approaches Wednesday night. This system will initially move out of the Great Lakes Wednesday morning and track eastward across northern NB late Wednesday night. A more important area of low pressure develops along the US mid Atlantic coast Thursday morning and track NE right into the Maritimes bringing another wintery mix of rain and/or snow to the island. As also, the details will become clearer as we get closer to the event but looks like another high impact storm for the island later Thursday. Improving conditions on Friday as this system pulls away.
Precipitation.. Snow begins about 9:00am tomorrow changing to rain towards mid/late afternoon then back to flurries by noonish Monday. Flurries continue through Tuesday. Total precipitation will be in the 40-50 mm range but divided between rainfall and snowfall with rainfall amounts in the 20-30 mm range and snowfall amounts in the 10-20 cm range. Western PEI will see the higher amounts of both being closer to the expected storm track. A few cms of snow Wednesday night as the Great Lakes system approaches then rain and or snow for Thursday night.
Temperatures.. Cold today tonight into tomorrow morning then temps begin to moderate climbing to 0 by early evening tomorrow then peaking near 8 overnight before beginning to fall towards dawn Monday. Temps fall back below zero by noon Monday. Cold on Tuesday followed by another warm-up for Wednesday night then remaining at or above normal through dawn Saturday before tumbling.
Wind.. Brisk NW winds now will diminish very light northerly or calm tonight. Light easterlies develop tomorrow morning just after dawn increasing through the day becoming brisk-strong southerly by late evening peaking near midnight with gusts to 90n possible. Winds will drop off somewhat towards dawn as the “eye” or center of the storms passes across western PEI or eastern NB. Winds then pick-up out of the NW as the storm pulls away on Monday afternoon.
Hazards.. Significant snowfall beginning 9:00am tomorrow followed by significant rain tomorrow night. Rainfall and snow melt will lead to local city street flooding and rural road flooding where ditches are full of ice and snow. A real mess.. All this water, wet snow and slush will need to be removed by noon Monday as temps will fall resulting in a hard freeze for what ever remains. Strong winds may also result in bridge restrictions later tomorrow into Monday morning. Power outages may also be an issue.
Watches/warnings.. Winter storm warnings in effect for Queens and Prince counties while winter storm watch is in effect for Kings county.
- Today.. Sunny, brisk NW winds giving drifting snow, highs occurring now. Temps falling to -17 by noon then steady.
- Tonight.. Increasing clouds after midnight, very light north winds, tempos steady near -17
- Tomorrow.. Snow beginning mid morning changing to rain late afternoon, brisk-strong south winds, temps near -17 at dawn rising to -4 by suppertime and +1 by mid evening.
- Monday.. Rain early changing to flurries near noon, winds shifting to brisk W-NW, Temps near +6 at dawn falling to 0 by noon and -4 by evening.
- Tuesday.. Sun and cloud, flurries, light-brisk NW winds, highs -8
- Wednesday.. Light snow evening, 0
- Thursday.. Rain and/or snow developing, increasing East winds, highs +1
- Friday.. Clearing, -2