Daily Archives: January 20, 2019

Nor-easter takes aim at PEI today..

Sunday, January 20th 7:30am.. Our Noreaster is organizing along the mid Atlantic coast vicinity Delaware this morning and will track NE to be located at the mouth of the Bay of Fundy near midnight tonight then continue NE crossing western PEI into the Gulf by Monday dawn. This system will bring a wintery mix of snow, ice pellets, freezing rain, rain, and wind to the island beginning mid morning today. Temperatures will moderate today as the storm approaches then fall tomorrow in it’s wake resulting in a change over back to flurries which will then continue into Tuesday in the onshore NW flow. High pressure approaches Tuesday night cresting over the island Wednesday morning. Clouds thicken up on Wednesday as an Alberta Clipper approaches from the west with some snow and /or rain by Wednesday late afternoon. Secondary low pressure will develop along the US Mid Atlantic coast Thursday morning then intensify as it moves NE. This feature will become another noreaster but with mild air in place, expected this to be a rain event as it crosses the Maritimes Thursday evening/overnight. Cold air returns fro Friday and Saturday in it’s wake.

Precipitation.. Snow will spread across the island about 9:0am this morning changing over to rain near suppertime. Risk of freezing rain during the changeover. Rain at times heavy all night ending near dawn tomorrow.  Flurries develop early afternoon tomorrow as the colder air invades which wil then continue into Tuesday especially eastern PEI. Generally 40 mms water fall across the island but split between snowfall and rainfall with higher snowfall up west and higher rainfall down east.  Western PEI 20 cms snow/ice pellets + 20 mms freezing rain and rain..     Central PEI 10-15 cms snow/ice pellets + 25-30 mms rain., Eastern PEI will see lower snowfalls but higher rainfall amounts. 10 cms snow and ice pellets + 30 mms rain.

Temperatures.. Will moderate today climbing above zero near suppertime hence the change over to rain peaking near +7 between midnight and 9:00pm this evening and dawn tomorrow. Temps will then begin to fall dropping back below 0 about 9:00am tomorrow and -12 by midnight tomorrow night. Cold on Tuesday then a milder spell beginning late Wednesday.

Wind.. Cam now but light easterlies will develop over the next hour or so increasing to brisk by lunchtime then shift and further increasing to brisk-strong southerly towards suppertime  with gusts to 90 KMH possible diminishing after midnight tonight as the “eye” or center passes overhead. Back side winds then shift to the W/NW in the wake of the storm near 9:00am tomorrow which will usher in the cold air. Brisk NW winds continue into Tuesday.

Hazards.. Snowfall, Local street /ditch flooding due rainfall and snow melt. Wind giving possible bridge restrictions by suppertime. Visibility will be low in snow and blowing snow til about suppertime but will improve once the rain arrives and puts a cap on the snow. Freezing rain will lead to ice formation. Any wet/slushie surfaces will need to be removed by 9am tomorrow before the freeze-up.

Watches/warnings. Winter storm and wind warnings have been issued..

Forecast..

  • Today.. Snow beginning mid morning, increasing Easterly winds giving extensive blowing/drifting snow, temps rising to 0 by suppertime.
  • Tonight.. Snow changing to rain by early this evening then by dawn. Rick of freezing rain during the change-over, strong southerly winds dropping off to light after midnight, temps rising to +7 by mid evening then steady.
  • Tomorrow.. Cloudy with flurries developing late morning, brisk NW winds developing by lunchtime, temps falling to 0 by mid morning, -7 by suppertime and -12 by midnight.
  • Tuesday.. Cloud and flurries down east, sunny up west, brisk NW winds,  temps steady near -11
  • Wednesday.. Clouds with snow developing by late afternoon, -5
  • Thursday.. Heavy rain and wind, +5
  • Friday.. Clearing, 0
  • Saturday.. Flurries, turning much colder

 

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