Category Archives: pei

Turning cold over the next few hours across PEI..

Monday, January 21st 6:40am.. A storm system moved NE along the US mid Atlantic coast yesterday and moved into the Maritimes overnight. The storm center is now located near Truro, NS and will continue to move NE crossing PEI over the next few hours before moving into the Gulf. Snow changed over to rain as the associated warm front moved across the yesterday evening. The associated cold front will now sweep across the island before over the next  couple hours which will usher in much colder air resulting in a rapid freezing of water/wet/slushie surfaces on brisk W-NW winds. Cloud and flurries will continue into tomorrow especially eastern PEI in the onshore NW flow off open water. A ridge of high pressure will crest over the island on Wednesday morning then move east. Interesting set-up on Wednesday as a couple of low pressure systems approach. These systems, one from the great Lakes and a the second from the US mid Atlantic coast will  merge Thursday morning near Cape Cod and move NE across the Maritimes. Precipitation will start out as snow Wednesday afternoon as the Great Lakes low approaches but will change over to rain by early evening as warmer air gets involved. Rain continues into Thursday morning as the second takes over and approaches. This 2nd system now the primary storm system moves NE across the Maritmes Thursday evening with the associated cold frontal passage occurring by dawn Friday morning as the storms pulls away into the Gulf. High pressure should then dominate into the weekend.

Precipitation.. Snow changed over to rain yesterday around suppertime in Charlottetown area with about 10 cms recorded. Any left over showers will change back to flurries this morning as the colder air returns. Flurries will continue through tomorrow in the onshore NW winds. Snow begins again late Wednesday afternoon changing to rain by mid/late evening. The rain then becomes heavy ion Thursday as the coastal storm approaches ending Friday morning. Flurries on Saturday.

Temperatures.. Will now fall quickly with the passage of the cold front over the next couple hours. Cold tomorrow then a warm-up on Wednesday and stays mild through Saturday afternoon.

Wind.. Winds will shift to the NW over the next hours or so marking the passage of thew storm and cold front. Brisk NW winds tomorrow diminishing to calm Tuesday night then southerlies develop on Wednesday.

Hazards.. Water/wet/slushie surfaces will freeze quickly over the next couple hours as temps plummet.

Watches/warnings.. Flash freeze warning in effect.

Forecast..

  • Today.. Cloudy with showers changing to flurries over the next hour or so, light-brisk NW winds, temps falling quickly to -8 by noon then steady.
  • Tonight.. Cloudy flurries, brisk NW winds, lows -10
  • Tomorrow.. Flurries down east, sunny up west, brisk NW winds diminishing by evening, highs -14
  • Wednesday.. Snow developing mid afternoon changing to rain by evening, light south winds, temps -6 at noon rising to +1 by midnight.
  • Thursday.. Rain at times heavy, +2
  • Friday.. Clearing, NW winds, +1
  • Saturday.. Flurries, 0
  • Sunday.. Sunny, -3

 

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Nor-easter takes aim at PEI today..

Sunday, January 20th 7:30am.. Our Noreaster is organizing along the mid Atlantic coast vicinity Delaware this morning and will track NE to be located at the mouth of the Bay of Fundy near midnight tonight then continue NE crossing western PEI into the Gulf by Monday dawn. This system will bring a wintery mix of snow, ice pellets, freezing rain, rain, and wind to the island beginning mid morning today. Temperatures will moderate today as the storm approaches then fall tomorrow in it’s wake resulting in a change over back to flurries which will then continue into Tuesday in the onshore NW flow. High pressure approaches Tuesday night cresting over the island Wednesday morning. Clouds thicken up on Wednesday as an Alberta Clipper approaches from the west with some snow and /or rain by Wednesday late afternoon. Secondary low pressure will develop along the US Mid Atlantic coast Thursday morning then intensify as it moves NE. This feature will become another noreaster but with mild air in place, expected this to be a rain event as it crosses the Maritimes Thursday evening/overnight. Cold air returns fro Friday and Saturday in it’s wake.

Precipitation.. Snow will spread across the island about 9:0am this morning changing over to rain near suppertime. Risk of freezing rain during the changeover. Rain at times heavy all night ending near dawn tomorrow.  Flurries develop early afternoon tomorrow as the colder air invades which wil then continue into Tuesday especially eastern PEI. Generally 40 mms water fall across the island but split between snowfall and rainfall with higher snowfall up west and higher rainfall down east.  Western PEI 20 cms snow/ice pellets + 20 mms freezing rain and rain..     Central PEI 10-15 cms snow/ice pellets + 25-30 mms rain., Eastern PEI will see lower snowfalls but higher rainfall amounts. 10 cms snow and ice pellets + 30 mms rain.

Temperatures.. Will moderate today climbing above zero near suppertime hence the change over to rain peaking near +7 between midnight and 9:00pm this evening and dawn tomorrow. Temps will then begin to fall dropping back below 0 about 9:00am tomorrow and -12 by midnight tomorrow night. Cold on Tuesday then a milder spell beginning late Wednesday.

Wind.. Cam now but light easterlies will develop over the next hour or so increasing to brisk by lunchtime then shift and further increasing to brisk-strong southerly towards suppertime  with gusts to 90 KMH possible diminishing after midnight tonight as the “eye” or center passes overhead. Back side winds then shift to the W/NW in the wake of the storm near 9:00am tomorrow which will usher in the cold air. Brisk NW winds continue into Tuesday.

Hazards.. Snowfall, Local street /ditch flooding due rainfall and snow melt. Wind giving possible bridge restrictions by suppertime. Visibility will be low in snow and blowing snow til about suppertime but will improve once the rain arrives and puts a cap on the snow. Freezing rain will lead to ice formation. Any wet/slushie surfaces will need to be removed by 9am tomorrow before the freeze-up.

Watches/warnings. Winter storm and wind warnings have been issued..

Forecast..

  • Today.. Snow beginning mid morning, increasing Easterly winds giving extensive blowing/drifting snow, temps rising to 0 by suppertime.
  • Tonight.. Snow changing to rain by early this evening then by dawn. Rick of freezing rain during the change-over, strong southerly winds dropping off to light after midnight, temps rising to +7 by mid evening then steady.
  • Tomorrow.. Cloudy with flurries developing late morning, brisk NW winds developing by lunchtime, temps falling to 0 by mid morning, -7 by suppertime and -12 by midnight.
  • Tuesday.. Cloud and flurries down east, sunny up west, brisk NW winds,  temps steady near -11
  • Wednesday.. Clouds with snow developing by late afternoon, -5
  • Thursday.. Heavy rain and wind, +5
  • Friday.. Clearing, 0
  • Saturday.. Flurries, turning much colder

 

Cold today across PEI… Noreaster for the Maritimes tomorrow.

Saturday, January 19th 9:15am.. A trough of low pressure crossed the island yesterday evening and overnight which resulted in some cloud and flurries. This feature is now east with a weak ridge of high pressure approaching now. Brisk NW winds will occur ahead of this feature dropping off to calm tonight. Clouds will begin to invade the region overnight tonight as an intensifying area of low pressure approaches from the US mid Atlantic coast. The computer models have shifted the expected track of the storm further west into the Bay of Fundy then along the Fundy coast of NB then across western PEI  near mid morning in Monday. This track will mean a warmer scenario for PEI resulting in less snow but more rain. Much colder air returns Monday morning as the storms lifts NE into the Gulf. Clouds wind and flurries continue into Tuesday s the storm systems Lingers in the northern Gulf. High pressure crests over the island on Wednesday with cold sunshine then another winter system approaches Wednesday night. This system will initially move out of the Great Lakes Wednesday morning and track eastward across northern NB late Wednesday night. A more important area of low pressure develops along the US mid Atlantic coast Thursday morning and track NE right into the Maritimes bringing another wintery mix of rain and/or snow to the island. As also, the details will become clearer as we get closer to the event but looks like another high impact storm for the island later Thursday. Improving conditions on Friday as this system pulls away.

Precipitation.. Snow begins about 9:00am tomorrow changing to rain towards mid/late afternoon then back to flurries by noonish Monday. Flurries continue through Tuesday. Total precipitation will be in the 40-50 mm range but divided between rainfall and snowfall with rainfall amounts in the 20-30 mm range and snowfall amounts in the 10-20 cm range. Western PEI will see the higher amounts of both being closer to the expected storm track. A few cms of snow Wednesday night as the Great Lakes system approaches then rain and or snow for Thursday night.

Temperatures.. Cold today tonight into tomorrow morning then temps begin to moderate climbing to 0 by early evening tomorrow then peaking near 8 overnight before beginning to fall towards dawn Monday. Temps fall back below zero by noon Monday. Cold on Tuesday followed by another warm-up for Wednesday night then remaining at or above normal through dawn Saturday before tumbling.

Wind.. Brisk NW winds now will diminish very light northerly or calm tonight. Light easterlies develop tomorrow morning just after dawn increasing through the day becoming brisk-strong southerly by late evening peaking near midnight with gusts to 90n possible. Winds will drop off somewhat towards dawn as the “eye” or center of the storms passes across western PEI or eastern NB. Winds then  pick-up out of the NW as the storm pulls away on Monday afternoon.

Hazards.. Significant snowfall beginning 9:00am tomorrow followed by significant rain tomorrow night. Rainfall and snow melt will lead to local city street flooding and rural road flooding where ditches are full of ice and snow. A real mess.. All this water, wet snow and slush will need to be removed by noon Monday as temps will fall resulting in a hard freeze for what ever remains. Strong winds may also result in bridge restrictions later tomorrow into Monday morning.  Power outages may also be an issue.

Watches/warnings.. Winter storm warnings in effect for Queens and Prince counties while winter storm watch is in effect for Kings county.

Forecast.

  • Today.. Sunny, brisk NW winds giving drifting snow, highs occurring now. Temps falling to -17 by noon then steady.
  • Tonight.. Increasing clouds after midnight, very light north winds, tempos steady near -17
  • Tomorrow.. Snow beginning mid morning changing to rain late afternoon, brisk-strong south winds, temps near -17 at dawn rising to -4 by suppertime and +1 by mid evening.
  • Monday.. Rain early changing to flurries near noon, winds shifting to brisk W-NW, Temps near +6 at dawn falling to 0 by noon and -4 by evening.
  • Tuesday.. Sun and cloud, flurries, light-brisk NW winds, highs -8
  • Wednesday.. Light snow evening, 0
  • Thursday.. Rain and/or snow developing, increasing East winds, highs +1
  • Friday.. Clearing, -2

 

Turning much colder tomorrow across PEI. Noreaster for Sunday.

Friday, January 18th 8:00am.. An area of high pressure is currently centered just est of Cape Breton and continues to drift away to the east. Skies will cloud up today with some flurries this evening and overnight associated with a trough of low pressure which will cross the island overnight tonight. High pressure will briefly return tomorrow with some clearing then things begin to get really interesting. An intensifying area of low pressure will move ENE across the American midwest to be located near NYC Sunday morning breakfast. This impressive nor-easter then moves NE ro be located near southern NS by Sunday evening then continue NE along the spine of NS to be located in the eastern Gulf of Northumberland Strait  between PEI and Cape Breton near dawn Monday morning then continue NE towards Newfoundland later Monday. This storm will bring a significant amount of snow, rain and wind to the island beginning near dawn on Sunday morning with the bulk of the snow to the NW of thew storm track, rain to the SE and a wintery mix of both along and just either side of the track. It is imperative to note that this storm track is not a sure bet and any deviation in track will shift the rain/snow line accordingly. Cold air returns on the back side of this storm on Monday as it pulls away. High pressure will crest over the island Tuesday night then we get set for another potential weather system which will is expected to track across the Maritimes Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The models are not in agreement with the strength of this system so will continue to watch but first lets get through Sunday/Monday storm first.

Precipitation.. Few flurries or periods of light snow later this afternoon ending towards dawn tomorrow giving 1-2 cms. Snow begins near dawn Sunday morning mixing with or changing to rain across central and eastern PEI mid afternoon then back to snow near dawn Monday morning tapering to flurries in the afternoon. Western PEI should stay mostly all snow. There is a risk of freezing rain during the change over. The bulk of the snow will fall over western PEI with lesser amounts across central and eastern PEI due to change over to rain. Snowfall amounts start at 15-20 cms for Kings increasing to 20-30 cms for Queens and 30-40cms for Prince. Rainfall amounts of 5 mms up west increasing to 20 mms across Charlottetown and 30 mms down east. Again, I must stress that any deviation in expected track either to the west or east will shift the rain/snow line accordingly and alter expected amounts.

Temperatures.. Cold today, moderating tonight peaking just after midnight tonight near 0/+1 then falling to -1 near dawn tomorrow then falling through the morning dropping to -15 by noon. Temps begin to moderate again Sunday afternoon Sunday evening as warm as +5. This will depend on storm track with the warmest temps along and east of the track so western PEI should only warm to the freezing mark. Temps fall on Monday as the storm pulls away.

Wind.. Light SE winds today shifting to NW near dawn tomorrow dropping back to calm Saturday nigh into Sunday morning. Increasing East winds develop on Sunday becoming strong Sunday evening shifting to NW on Monday.

Hazards..  Flash freeze near dawn tomorrow then the storm on Sunday.. Wow.. Where do we start.. Expect all hazards associated with a winter storm. Snow and Wind. In addition, water issues due heavy rain and snow melt across central and eastern PEI Sunday night. Wet/slushie surfaces then freeze on Monday as temps drop. Strong Wind may give travel restrictions on the bridge later Sunday into early Monday.

Watches/warnings.. Special weather statement remains in effect for PEI.

Forecast..

  • Today.. Sunny start becoming cloud, light-brisk South winds, highs -8
  • Tonight.. Cloudy with flurries or light snow ending towards dawn giving 1-2 cms, light-brisk south winds shifting to NW near dawn temps rising to 0 near midnight then falling to -1 by dawn.
  • Tomorrow.. Cloudy periods, brisk NW winds, temps falling from -1 at dawn to -15 by noon then -20 by suppertime.
  • Sunday.. Snow beginning near dawn changing to rain mid afternoon. Better chance of rain for east. brisk-strong east winds, temps rising to 0 / +5 late
  • Monday.. Flurries, brisk-strong NW winds, temps falling -10 by noon.
  • Tuesday.. Morning flurries becoming sunny, brisk-strong NW winds, highs -10
  • Wednesday.. Sunny start becoming cloudy with snow developing late, SE winds, highs 0
  • Thursday.. Snow ?? -7

 

Cold continues today across PEI..

Thursday, January 17th 9:00am.. A cold front swept across the island during the overnight hours last night giving the cloud and periods of light snow. This front also ushered in much colder arctic air. High pressure will now build in from the west and is expected to crest over the island tonight. OK….. Things then start to get interesting.. First a weak area of low pressure will cross the region tomorrow with some light snow.  Arctic high pressure returns for Saturday with cold sunshine.. A nor-easter is then expected to approach from the SW on Sunday. The problem is the all so important storm track is still unclear with the various computer models tracking the storm differently. The overall consensus is trending a bit further SE which means a colder solution for the Island meaning more snow and less rain. The storm will move NE passing along the NS coastline Sunday night into Monday morning with snow and strong winds for the island. Eastern PEI has the best chance of seeing some rain. The storm pulls away to the NE on Monday with cold air return as arctic air invades from the north with onshore clouds and flurries expected into Tuesday. High pressure approaches and crests over the island Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Clouds will once again be in the increase by dawn Wednesday as the next weather system approaches with snow developing noon. Models are hint8ng at change over to rain as this system passes by to our north and warmer air id introduced but will will need to wait and get this first noreaster out of the way first.

Precipitation.. Snow snow or flurries developing later tomorrow afternoon ending near dawn on Saturday morning giving a couple cms. Dry for Saturday… SNOW begins near noon on Sunday tapering to flurries Monday morning then ending near noon Tuesday. Bit too early for snowfall amounts as the all so important track which will determine the rain/snow line is still unclear. Heavy snow will fall north of the track, heavy rain to the south and a mix of rain/snow and freezing rain along the track. Right now the track appears to be along the coast of NS which would favor a significant snow event for PEI (20-40 cms). More rain and/or snow for Wednesday.

Temperatures.. The roller coaster ride continues… Cold today, warmup tomorrow evening peaking overnight then falling again by dawn Saturday. Cold from noon Saturday through noon Sunday then warm-up again Sunday night peaking before dawn Monday morning then falling again on Monday. Cold on Tuesday then yet another warm-up on Wednesday..

Wind.. Will be all around the compass as the various weatehr systems move through. Quite windy Sunday night.

Hazards… Cold today into early tomorrow then again Saturday into early Sunday.  Significant snow event beginning near noon on Sunday along with strong NE winds peaking Sunday night. Blizzard conditions possible.

Watches/warnings.. Special weather statement in effect for Sunday into Monday.

Forecast..

  • Today.. Sunny, light-brisk NW winds, highs -16
  • Tonight.. Clear, calm winds, lows -20
  • Tomorrow.. Sunny start becoming cloud with light snow by late afternoon, light-brisk SE winds, temps rising from -18 at dawn to -2 by late evening.
  • Saturday.. Flurries ending early then clearing, diminishing NW winds, temps falling to -14 by noon.
  • Sunday.. Overcast with snow beginning near noon, brisk-strong East winds peaking towards late evening, temps rising from -17 at dawn to 0 by midnight.
  • Monday.. Snow tapers to flurries early, brisk north winds, temps falling to -10 by suppertime.
  • Tuesday.. Morning flurries  ending then clearing, diminishing north winds, highs -10
  • Wednesday.. Snow and or rain, +3

Mild today turning much colder tomorrow across PEI..

Wednesday, January 16th 9:00am.. A cold front dropped moved across the region yesterday evening and gave the cloud and light flurries to the island.  High pressure is now building in from the west and will give cold sunshine to the region today. An Alberta clipper (low pressure system originating in the prairies) currently located near James Bay is moving eastward and will  pass north of the Maritimes tonight. A cold front extending southward from this system will sweep across the island late tonight with another round of cloud and light snow. High pressure  rebuilds in from the west and will crest over the island Thursday night with clear skies light winds and very cold temperatures. Things then start to get interesting…. A weak area of low pressure moves across the island Friday night in to Saturday morning with light snow. High pressure briefly returns for Saturday evening. A much more impressive high impact storm then moves put of the American mid west intensifying near Cape Cod Sunday afternoon. The storm  continues to move NE moving up through the Bay of Fundy Sunday night then across PEI before dawn on MOnday. This storm will bring significant precipitation to the island in the form of snow and rain with a risk of freezing rain. The track of the storm will determine precipitation types and this track is still unclear. Any shift in track either east or west will also shift the associated rain/snow line accordingly. The storm pulls away Monday afternoon but cloud and flurries should continue into Tuesday in the onshore northerly winds. High pressure crests over the region on Tuesday evening, then another wintery mix of rain and snow approaches for Wednesday.

Precipitation.. Few flurries or periods of light snow tonight giving a couple cms. Another round of light snow Friday evening giving 2-4 cms. Snow begins near noon on Sunday. At this time expect the snow to change to rain Sunday night then back to snow Monday morning then taper to flurries for later Monday through Tuesday. Too early to go into amounts yet as this will all depend on the eventual storm track but western PEI has the best chance for snow while eastern PEI has the best chance for rain. This will be a high impact event.

Temperatures.. Roller coaster. Mild/cold/mild/cold/mild/cold.

Wind.. Will also be all around the compass as the numerous weathers systems move through. String winds will accompany the Sunday night storm.

Hazards.. Generally quite next couple day Although turning very cold after midnight tonight and staying cold tomorrow.  Couple cms snow Friday night. Sunday night’s storm will be high impact with possible heavy snow and or rain.  Potential for flooding due rain and snow melt for some areas. Winds will give problems on Bridge with possible restrictions. Freezing rain may accompany this system giving a new set of problems.

Watches/warnings.. None for PEI at this time..

Forecast..

  • Today.. Sunny, light-brisk south winds, highs -2 by suppertime.
  • Tonight.. Cloudy with flurries, light-brisk south winds shifting to westerly near midnight, temps rising to 0 by midnight then fall falling sharply after midnight to -15 by dawn.
  • Tomorrow.. Sunny and cold, diminishing west winds, highs -17
  • Friday.. Sunny start becoming cloudy with light snow towards evening, brisk south winds, temps rising to 0 by late evening then falling sharply -16 towards dawn
  • Saturday.. Sun and cloud, chance of a flurrie, diminishing NW winds, temps falling to -17
  • Sunday.. Overcast, Snow/Rain/Wind, highs +7 by late evening.
  • Monday.. Snow or rain changing to snow, NW winds, falling temps -10 by afternoon.
  • Tuesday.. Flurries, diminishing  NW winds, highs -14
  • Wednesday.. Rain/snow..+2

 

 

Generally dry next few days across PEI..

Tuesday, January 15th 9:00am.. A weakening ridge of high pressure oriented NE-SW is currently over the Maritimes and will give sunshine to the island today. A cold front will approach from the NW later today with increasing clouds and chance of a s flurrie especially overnight tonight. Cold high pressure returns tomorrow cresting over the island tomorrow night. Things then start to get interesting as well get into a stormy pattern. Clouds will be on the increase on Friday morning as low pressure approaches from the SW with snow developing by mid evening. The low pressure crosses the region by dawn on Saturday then pulls away by noon with clearing skies and colder temps. High pressure briefly builds in for Saturday evening/overnight then system number 2 approaches. This system is expected to move across the Maritimes Sunday night into Monday morning with a winter mix of rain and snow. Cold high pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Precipitation..  Few flurries later today and overnight. Snow begins Friday evening with a slight chance of a change over to rain overnight then back to snow before ending near dawn on Saturday morning. Could be 5-8 cms snow with this system. Storm #2 is much more impressive and could dump significant amounts of snow and/or rain across the Maritimes. There is also a significant risk of freezing rain. Still to early for details so will continue to monitor this but be prepared for a stormy weekend..

Temperatures.. Roller coaster ride in the temperature department as several weatehr systems will cross the region over the next week.

Wind.. Winds will also be all around the compass as these several weather systems move through.

Hazards.. Quickly falling temps near dawn on Thursday morning. snow on Friday evening then a significant event on Sunday afternoon into Monday night.

Watches/warnings… None for PEI at this time..

Forecast..

  • Today.. Sunny, light-brisk NW winds, highs  -4
  • Tonight.. Few clouds, calm winds, lows -17
  • Tomorrow.. Sunny, becoming cloudy with chance of few flurries, light-brisk south winds, highs 0 by late evening.
  • Thursday.. Sunny, light-brisk west winds, falling temps -15 by afternoon.
  • Friday.. Sunny start becoming cloudy with snow developing by suppertime possibly changing to rain towards midnight, brisk SE winds, highs  0 by late evening,
  • Saturday.. Sunny, light-brisk NW winds, falling temps
  • Sunday.. Snow and/or Rain, brisk SE winds, highs 0
  • Monday.. Snow ending, brisk W-NW winds, falling temps
  • Tuesday.. Sunny, brisk NW winds, highs -18